Preview: Australia v Wales
The Wallabies will look to bounce back from a mid-week Scottish ambush and maintain their recent dominance over Wales in the first of three Tests against the Six Nations champions in Brisbane on Saturday.
Australia were clueless in attack against the Scots in Newcastle on Tuesday, going down 9-6 in a try-less match which saw Scotland, ranked 12th in the world, register their second straight victory over the Wallabies.
Under-fire coach Robbie Deans has reacted by making eight changes to his starting team as the Wallabies look to reassert themselves against the Welsh, who are coming off an unbeaten Six Nations campaign.
The Wallabies have beaten Wales in seven of their last eight meetings, including winning the playoff for third place 21-18 at last year's World Cup in New Zealand and a last start 24-18 win in Cardiff last December.
But the Australians could be vulnerable given their piecemeal buildup, and the side is missing the attacking skills of playmaker Quade Cooper and the leadership of injured James Horwill.
It may be only one match into Australia's international season but the Scotland boilover once again has coach Deans in the hot seat with his critics.
Deans has lost 23 of 57 Tests in charge and his tenure as Australia's first foreign coach has been tarnished by the two Scotland losses, last year's home defeat to Samoa, the record loss to South Africa in 2008 and the pool loss to Ireland that undermined their 2011 World Cup campaign.
To prevent back-to-back Test losses Deans has brought in five new forwards and three fresh backs in a stronger looking line-up to face the Welsh this weekend.
Wales have made four changes to the side that beat France 16-9 in Cardiff last March to achieve their third Grand Slam in seven seasons.
With the big loss being in the backs where Jamie Roberts is absent with a knee injury, with offers an opportunity for young midfielder Scott Williams.
"Australia will be disappointed after their defeat to Scotland, but that will make them all the more dangerous for us," Wales caretaker head coach Rob Howley said.
"The Wallabies are still the second highest placed side in the world rankings and we are playing them in their own back yard.
"We all appreciate the enormity of the task ahead of us, the long term stats don't make happy reading for the Welsh against the Wallabies, but as recently as this season we have two losses racked up against Australian opposition and we are determined to stop that trend."
The Wallabies have won eight of the nine Tests played between the two sides in Australia, with the sole Welsh victory coming in Sydney 19-16 in 1969.
Players to watch:
For Australia: The most dangerous attacking back in Australia is Digby Ioane, who will be used as a strike runner from set-pieces and can open up a match from almost nothing. The halfback pairing of Will Genia and Berrick Barnes will also be key, as their pair will need a better performance than the one they offered against Scotland. Both Genia and Barnes are classy players and can control the match if their forwards give them quick ball to play with.
For Wales: The big men up front will be tasked with dominating the Wallaby scrum, much like the Scots did in midweek. Props Adam Jones and Gethin Jenkins are among the best in the business and could cause havoc at scrum time, which is a potential weakness of Australia. In the backs it's worth keeping an eye on scrumhalf Mike Phillips, who is unusually tall for a No.9, but uses his physical presence to great effect. Phillips can break open a match with a sniping break around the fringes an has the strength to crash through tackles.
Head to head: An interesting battle will take place at the breakdown between the two skippers David Pocock and Sam Warburton. It always adds some extra spice to a match where the two captains are in the same position, and this pair are two of the best in the world at openside flank. Whichever man proves to be the better scavenger could have a massive influence on the outcome.
Recent results:
2011: Australia won 24-18, Cardiff
2011: Australia won 21-18, Auckland
2010: Australia won 25-16, Cardiff
2009: Australia won 3012, Cardiff
2008: Wales won 21-18, Cardiff
2007: Australia won 32-20, Cardiff
2007: Australia won 31-0, Brisbane
2007: Australia won 29-23, Sydney
2006: Match drawn 29-29, Cardiff
2005: Wales won 24-22, Cardiff
Prediction: Australia's pride was wounded against Scotland and they will want to use their backs to carve open the match. Wales will want to keep things a little tighter and use their big forwards to crash the ball up before unleashing the backs. Wales to add further woe to the Wallabies by about six points.
Teams:
Australia: 15 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 14 Cooper Vuna, 13 Rob Horne, 12 Pat McCabe, 11 Digby Ioane, 10 Berrick Barnes, 9 Will Genia, 8 Wycliff Palu, 7 David Pocock (captain), 6 Scott Higginbotham, 5 Nathan Sharpe, 4 Rob Simmons, 3 Sekope Kepu, 2 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1 Benn Robinson.
Replacements: Stephen Moore, 17 Ben Alexander, 18 Dave Dennis, 19 Michael Hooper, 20 Nic White, 21 Anthony Fainga'a, 22 Mike Harris.
Wales: 15 Leigh Halfpenny, 14 Alex Cuthbert, 13 Jonathan Davies, 12 Scott Williams, 11 George North, 10 Rhys Priestland, 9 Mike Phillips, 8 Toby Faletau, 7 Sam Warburton (captain), 6 Dan Lydiate, 5 Luke Charteris, 4 Bradley Davies, 3 Adam Jones, 2 Ken Owens, 1 Gethin Jenkins.
Replacements: 16 Matthew Rees, 17 Paul James, 18 Alun Wyn Jones, 19 Ryan Jones, 20 Lloyd Williams, 21 James Hook, 22 Ashley Beck.
Date: Saturday, June 9
Venue: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Kick-off: 20.00 (10.00 GMT)
Predicted weather: Cold at 14 °C with a 70% chance of rain
Referee: Craig Joubert (South Africa)
Assistant referees: Keith Brown (New Zealand), Garratt Williamson (New Zealand)
TMO: Vinny Munro (New Zealand)
AFP and rugby365.com