Pool C preview: Ireland v Italy
Brian O'Driscoll has said the fact Ireland have won their last 15 Tests against Italy will count for little when the teams clash for a place in the World Cup quarterfinals on Sunday.
Victory for either of the European rivals at Dunedin's Otago Stadium will all but guarantee a last eight place - something neither side managed in France four years ago.
Ireland though have already caused the upset of the tournament so far with a 15-6 Pool C win over Australia.
But they only preserved their winning streak against Italy with a nailbiting 13-11 win in Rome during the Six Nations in February secured only by a last-ditch drop-goal from flyhalf Ronan O'Gara.
"They've become harder and harder to play in each match over the last four or five years," Ireland captain O'Driscoll said after coach Declan Kidney's team announcement on Friday.
"Some of the scorelines have been getting closer and closer and we really had to pull it of the bag to beat them in Rome in February," the centre added.
"It's win or bust. We felt as though we had the ability to beat Australia, but winning that game hasn't made this group any different.
Kidney sprung a surprise in his team selection by selecting 22-year-old scrumhalf Conor Murray in his 1st XV ahead of the more experienced Eoin Reddan and Isaac Boss.
The other change to the team that started against Australia saw O'Gara preferred to Jonathan Sexton at flyhalf.
Against the Wallabies, O'Gara had to come off the bench, playing alongside his rival as a centre, in order to seal the win after Sexton missed three out of five goal-kicks.
O'Gara, on for centre Gordon D'Arcy, secured the win with two crucial penalties with Murray playing the final quarter against Australia after replacing Reddan.
Although untested as an international halfback pair, Murray and O'Gara both play for Irish provincial side Munster.
Sunday's match will be just the second time Murray has started a Test after taking the field in Ireland's opening 22-10 Pool C win over the United States and will represent just his fifth cap in all.
But O'Driscoll said Murray had the temperament to cope with such a high-stakes encounter.
"He's a confident young man who's been shown to be in his depth in these surroundings. You wouldn't know the number of Tests he has under his belt."
Italy made just one change to the team that secured a 27-10 bonus point win over the United States on Tuesday that kept their knockout phase hopes alive with fit-again fullback Andrea Masi returning in place of Luke McLean.
After the Eagles match, where the Azzurri scrum forced a penalty try, Italy coach Nick Mallett proclaimed his side had a superior front row to that of Ireland and the former South Africa boss backed up those words on Friday.
"We certainly believe we have a very strong front row, I don't regret what I said," Mallett told reporters.
"But as the Irish have quite rightly said, it's only one area and we like to think we have more to our game as well.
"We're not a one-trick pony.
"It's the right moment to say we've scored more tries than Ireland against the same (pool) opposition - we've scored 13 they've scored 12.
"Within the team there is a genuine feeling we are getting better and if you keep getting better there must come a time when you will be equal to your opponents and I think Italy are nearing that time."
Players to Watch:
For Ireland: You can't ignore their skipper Brian O'Driscoll, who is the inspirational figure in the Irish side. There are few players in the world capable of breaking the line and creating something from nothing the way O'Driscoll has done time and again. Should the game become a kicking duel, then flyhalf Ronan O'Gara is the man for the occasion, having won Ireland countless matches with his golden boot under pressure. In the forwards there is the big stalwart Paul O'Connell, who will be as uncompromising as ever, while openside flank Sean O'Brien was been one of the standout players in the tournament thus far.
For Italy: The front row for the Azzurri create the platform for the side, and you will struggle to find many sides capable of matching Salvatore Perugini, Leonardo Ghiraldini and in particular Martin Castrogiovanni for their sheer power in the scrum. Captain Sergio Parisse is a classy player, who would walk into just about any side in the world, while flank Alessandro Zanni is reliable and underrated weapon on the side of the scrum. The return of Andrea Masi at fullback will help to sure up the defence and add a an extra spark on attack, and he has the quality to inject life into the backs.
Head to Head: The battle will begin up front, where Cian Healy will need to be at his best to stop Martin Castrogiovanni from bullying the Irish scrum and putting Ireland on the back foot. Should the match be a close affair, then the kickers duel between O'Gara and Mirco Bergamasco will be key, and the Azzurri wing will need to have his kicking boot for his side to stand any chance of causing an upset. Finally the midfield will be of interest, with Gordon D'Arcy and Brian O'Driscoll a tries and tested combination with a reputation for tearing defences apart. The Italian pairing of Gonzalo Garcia and Gonzalo Canale must improve from their last outing where their defence was exposed at times, and will have their work cut out for them to keep the Irish backs honest.
Previous Results:
2011: Ireland won 13-11, Rome
2010: Ireland won 29-11, Dublin
2009: Ireland won 38-9, Rome
2008: Ireland won 16-11, Dublin
2007: Ireland won 23-20, Belfast
2007: Ireland won 51-24, Rome
2006: Ireland won 26-16, Dublin
2005: Ireland won 28-17, Rome
2004: Ireland won 19-3, Dublin
Prediction: Ireland have shrugged off some poor performances this year to beat Australia and were full value for that win, making them the obvious favourites for the match. Italy have the skill to record a first ever win against Ireland, although history suggests that would be a long shot. However, we enjoy a long shot now and then, so it's time for Italy to break their duck and win by less than five points.
The teams:
Ireland: 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Tommy Bowe, 13 Brian O'Driscoll (captain), 12 Gordon D'Arcy, 11 Keith Earls, 10 Ronan O'Gara, 9 Conor Murray, 8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 Sean O'Brien, 6 Stephen Ferris, 5 Paul O'Connell, 4 Donncha O'Callaghan, 3 Mike Ross, 2 Rory Best, 1 Cian Healy.
Replacements: 16 Sean Cronin, 17 Tom Court, 18 Donnacha Ryan, 19 Denis Leamy, 20 Eoin Reddan, 21 Jonathan Sexton, 22 Andrew Trimble.
Italy: 15 Andrea Masi, 14 Tommaso Benvenuti, 13 Gonzalo Canale, 12 Gonzalo Garcia, 11 Mirco Bergamasco, 10 Luciano Orquera, 9 Fabio Semenzato, 8 Sergio Parisse (captain), 7 Mauro Bergamasco, 6 Alessandro Zanni, 5 Cornelius van Zyl, 4 Quintin Geldenhuys, 3 Martin Castrogiovanni, 2 Leonardo Ghiraldini, 1 Salvatore Perugini.
Replacements: 16 Fabio Ongaro, 17 Andrea Lo Cicero, 18 Marco Bortolami, 19 Paul Derbyshire, 20 Edoardo Gori, 21 Riccardo Bocchino, 22 Luke McLean.
Date: Sunday, October 2
Venue: Otago Stadium, Dunedin
Kick-off: 19.30 (06.30 GMT)
Expected weather: Mainly fine, though isolated showers are possible. High of 16°C, low of 9°C
Referee: Jonathan Kaplan (South Africa)
Assistant referees: Bryce Lawrence (New Zealand), Chris Pollock (New Zealand)
TMO: Shaun Veldsman (South Africa)
AFP & rugby365.com