Preview: South Africa v Ireland
The first Test at Newlands was a shock for the Springboks and their supporters. What will happen in Johannesburg?
The answer really depends on how the Springboks play.
It was a horrible Test, unless you were admiring the bravery and energy of the Irish.
And they are likely to be brave and energetic again at Ellis Park this coming Saturday.
That means the Springboks need to up their game, which they certainly can do.
Just last year they lost to Japan in the opening round of the World Cup and at the end beat the Pumas to third place in the competition.
But South Africa has, in the last two seasons, suffered three historic defeats - Argentina in South Africa, Japan and now Ireland in South Africa.
Rugby is about two activities - attack and defence. To win on Saturday, the Springboks will have to improve both aspects greatly.
When Ireland were down to 13 men, that is for 12,5 percent of the match, the Springboks could not score a point - while 13-man Ireland scored three points.
The Springboks played against 14 men for just on an hour and in that hour created just one try.
Attack needs a great deal of improvement, running straight for a start and passing in front of the catcher and waist high. That's fairly basic.
What they do know is that they are not going to bully the Irish into submission.
What they also know is that running unnecessary steps, especially by the player in the scrumhalf position, plays into the hands of the speedy Irish defence.
Then the Springboks have a great need for quick, decisive, confident defence.
All of this requires players who are alert.
The Irish are not a full side - as they have lost players to injury and now have lost also Christiaan Stander to suspension.
But they know that they can beat the Springboks with only 14 men. They will, doubtlessly, carry on with their Newlands determination.
In olden days there was a belief that successful Springbok would always have a Jew in it. Perhaps the modern Irish will come to believe that to have a successful team they must always have a South African in it.
Out goes Stander and in comes Quinn Roux, Pretoria born, Affies educated.
Players to Watch
For South Africa: You will see Francois de Klerk, the one Springbok who played with energy all the time that he was on the field, perhaps a better rugby player than a scrumhalf. You will be regularly aware of Pieter-Steph du Toit with his athleticism, skill and instinctive summing up of a situation. Elton Jantjies, on his home ground with his own scrumhalf and possessed of skills and creative ability, could have a great influence on the game.
For Ireland: Conor Murray, the scrumhalf of skill, correct decision and surprising strength, was a star at Newlands. Paddy Jackson, who scored 16 points at Newlands, stepped so well into Jonathan Sexton's boots. Jamie Heaslip with his strength and energy, tall Devin Toner who is much more than just a line-out tower and eager beaver Rory Best are forwards who will surely catch the eye.
Head to Head: If we are looking for creative play we start with the inside three on each side - the scrumhalves, the flyhalves and the inside centres - De Klerk, Jantjies and Damian de Allende against Conor Murray, Paddy Jackson and Stuart Olding. They are the three players on each side who give the other four backs a chance to play. At outside centre there is Lionel Mapoe against Robbie Henshaw, not quite speed versus strength, but an important face-to-face contest. Tendai Mtawarira against new tighthead Tadhg Furlong, Eben Etzebeth against Devin Toner and Quinn Roux against Pieter-Steph du Toit, older Roux against taller Du Toit.
2016: Ireland won 26-20, Cape Town
2014: Ireland won 29-15, Dublin
2012: South Africa won 16-12, Dublin
2010: South Africa won 23-21, Dublin
2009: Ireland won 15-10, Dublin
2006: Ireland won 32-15, Dublin
2004: Ireland won 17-12, Dublin
2004: South Africa won 26-17, Cape Town
2004: South Africa won 31-17, Bloemfontein
Prediction: Last week we believed that the Springboks would win. They didn't. But we do know that the Springboks are historically weakest when they are over confident and historically strongest when their backs are to the wall. This week we believe that they cannot be as bad as they were last week and so we belive that they will win by about 10 points.
Teams
South Africa: 15 Willie le Roux, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Lionel Mapoe, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Lwazi Mvovo, 10 Elton Jantjies, 9 Francois de Klerk, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Siya Kolisi, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Adriaan Strauss (captain), 1 Tendai Mtawarira.
Replacements: 16 Bongi Mbonambi, 17 Trevor Nyakane, 18 Julian Redelinghuys, 19 Franco Mostert, 20 Warren Whiteley, 21 Rudy Paige 22 Morné Steyn, 23 Ruan Combrinck.
Ireland: 15 Jared Payne, 14 Andrew Trimble, 13 Robbie Henshaw, 12 Stuart Olding, 11 Craig Gilroy, 10 Paddy Jackson, 9 Conor Murray, 8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 Rhys Ruddock, 6 Iain Henderson, 5 Quinn Roux, 4 Devin Toner, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 2 Rory Best (captain), 1 Jack McGrath.
Replacements: 16 Richardt Strauss, 17 Dave Kilcoyne, 18 Finlay Bealham, 19 Donnacha Ryan, 20 Sean Reidy, 21 Kieran Marmion, 22 Ian Madigan, 23 Tiernan O'Halloran.
Date: Saturday, 18 June 2016
Venue: Ellis Park, Johannesburg
Kick-off: 17.00 (15.00 GMT)
Expected weather: Partly cloudy with a high of 18°C, dropping to 9°C. Rain is not forecast and Johannesburg can get colder than that. It suggests excellent conditions for playing rugby on a wonderful ground.
Referee: Angus Gardner (Australia)
Assistant referees: Glen Jackson (New Zealand), Ben Whitehouse (Wales)
TMO: Jim Yuille (Scotland)
By Paul Dobson
@rugby365com