Preview: South Africa v Ireland
Ireland still have the chance to do what none of the Four Home Unions has managed - to win a series against South Africa.
Oh, conglomerates have managed - the British & Irish Lions in 1891, 1896, 1974 and 1997 - but not the individual countries.
France did it in 1958 and 1993 and New Zealand did it in 1996, but not one of England, Scotland, Ireland or Wales.
England have had five chances, Scotland two, Wales two and Ireland three - in 1981, 1998 and 2004.
In those three series Ireland did not win a match, but in this one (2016) they won the first - the Test at Newlands, by six points, before losing in Johannesburg by six points to square the series at one Test each and 52 points each.
Ireland know that this is a great chance and the talk from their camp has been war talk.
One hopes that it will be only talk and not lead to a repetition of the unedifying behaviour of 1998.
The Irish thought it was in the bag when they led by 16 points in the second half at Ellis Park last week, but then the Springboks used substitutions to improve their team and eventually won.
Ireland are close to having the same team that won at Newlands - the same pack with the return of robust South African-born and bred Christiaan Stander, but the two that they have lost in the backs were both outstanding players - Jared Payne and Robbie Henshaw.
The Springboks on the other hand will want to restore their proud name.
Vilified after Newlands and booed at half-time at Ellis Park they are surely proud enough to take hold of this match, and they have a strong enough starting pack and a strong enough bench to dominate the Irish for 80 minutes, the way they did for 20 minutes in Johannesburg.
It is a match with lots of ifs and buts to make it unpredictable and so an exciting prospect.
There is not a lot to choose between the two sides when it comes to getting possession - penalty counts similar, line-outs not much difference and not much difference in the scrums either.
The Irish have been more energetic at breakdowns, but the big difference has been in the kicking. The booting of Conor Murray and Paddy Jackson has been better and telling, in an age when the team that kicks more often and better usually wins the match. Mind you, Ruan Combrinck is not an enticing target.
Players to Watch
For South Africa: Of the Springboks there is certainly Ruan Combrinck, on the evidence of what he achieved in half a match last week. And the first bit of that was the work of Willie le Roux when he turned defence into electric attack - the old Willie back in town. Combrinck needs the ball and his best bet of getting it seems to be from Irish gift and sudden magic from the halves, Francois de Klerk and Elton Jantjies, as well as from Le Roux. In the forwards Warren Whitely and Pieter-Steph du Toit are bound to do many good things.
For Ireland. You will want to watch Andrew Tremble, Paddy Jackson and Conor Murray amongst the Irish backs and also Keith Earls with the chance of a flash of speed. Of the Irish forwards Jamie Heaslip, busy Rory Best and Devin Toner of Ireland are likely to be the most productive.
Head to Head: The most telling battle may well be between the halfbacks - Elton Jantjies and Francois de Klerk against Paddy Jackson and Conor Murray. The Irish pair could win on precision, but the South African pair could well produce the telling surprise. Loose forwards count and here Warren Whiteley with his speed and energy could well tip the balance South Africa's way, though it is time for a bigger contribution from Siya Kolisi. Locks versus locks - a tough contest of Pieter-Steph du Toit and Eben Etzebeth against rugged Iain Henderson and tall Devin Toner, who has shown that there is more to his play than just his height. The Springbok bench looks stronger in the forwards, for all five forwards are capable of strong contributions - even though if three of them have no caps and Franco Mostert one cap as a substitute and Julian Redelinghuys two caps, both as a substitute. Mind you, he gave probably the best pass of the Ellis Park Test when he did get on. Goal-kicker versus goal-kicker: Kicking at goal has earned the teams 27 points each.
2016: South Africa won 32-26, Johannesburg
2016: Ireland won 26-20, Cape Town
2014: Ireland won 29-15, Dublin
2012: South Africa won 16-12, Dublin
2010: South Africa won 23-21, Dublin
2009: Ireland won 15-10, Dublin
2006: Ireland won 32-15, Dublin
2004: Ireland won 17-12, Dublin
2004: South Africa won 26-17, Cape Town
2004: South Africa won 31-17, Bloemfontein
Prediction: In fact everything looks so close that it is hard to call. Small moments could be decisive, but still we believe that surely the Springboks cannot enter the great stadium in Port Elizabeth in a lackadaisical manner born of overconfidence. Surely they will not retreat from their gains in spirit, effort and skill of the last 20 minutes of the last match. And so we stick a neck out and suggest that the Springboks could win by 10 or more.
Teams
South Africa: 15 Willie le Roux, 14 Ruan Combrinck, 13 Lionel Mapoe, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 JP Pietersen, 10 Elton Jantjies, 9 Francois de Klerk, 8 Warren Whiteley, 7 Siya Kolisi, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Adriaan Strauss (captain), 1 Tendai Mtawarira.
Replacements: 16 Bongi Mbonambi, 17 Steven Kitshoff, 18 Julian Redelinghuys, 19 Franco Mostert, 20 Jaco Kriel, 21 Rudy Paige, 22 Morné Steyn, 23 Lwazi Mvovo.
Ireland: 15 Tiernan O'Halloran, 14 Andrew Trimble, 13 Luke Marshall, 12 Stuart Olding, 11 Keith Earls, 10 Paddy Jackson, 9 Conor Murray, 8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 Jordi Murphy, 6 CJ Stander, 5 Devin Toner, 4 Iain Henderson, 3 Mike Ross, 2 Rory Best (captain), 1 Jack McGrath.
Replacements: 16 Sean Cronin, 17 Finlay Bealham, 18 Tadhg Furlong, 19 Ultan Dillane, 20 Rhys Ruddock, 21 Eoin Reddan, 22 Ian Madigan, 23 Matt Healy.
Date: Saturday, 25 June 2016
Venue: Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium, Port Elizabeth
Kick-off: 17.00 (15.00 GMT)
Expected weather: Clear with a high of 19°C, dropping to 10°C. The wind in the windy city is expected to be in the region of 10 km/h, a breeze.
Referee: Glen Jackson (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Angus Gardner (Australia), Ben Whitehouse (Wales)
TMO: Rowan Kitt (England)
By Paul Dobson
@rugby365com