Wales v South Africa - Teams and Prediction
PREVIEW: The Springboks will enter their final Test of the year against Wales in Cardiff as overwhelming favourites.
The two teams are at opposite ends of the scale when it comes to form in 2024 and not even Welsh fans are giving their side much of a chance against the world champions.
Wales will enter Saturday's clash with a run of 11 successive defeats and another against the Boks will leave them without a win in a calendar year for the first time since 1937.
Despite that record, Bok head coach Rassie Erasmus said there is no way his team would make the mistake of underestimating their opponents.
"I can tell you one thing, there won't be a lack of respect from us," said the Bok coach.
Should the Springboks win, it will be their 11th victory from 13 matches in the year for a winning percentage of 84.6 – repeating the feat of 2023 – and the highest seasonal percentage achieved since 1998 when 11 of 12 matches were won for a percentage of 91.7.
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"Eleven out of 13 will mean a lot," said Erasmus.
"When you lose, you quickly find out that it means a helluva lot.
"It's important for South Africa to keep on winning while experimenting.
"However, somewhere, experimenting must stop and we must settle and we have that target in mind."
With 2024 winding down, Erasmus reflected on what his team has achieved this year and also how they could have been even better on the playing field.
"We would have loved to win every game. Those two one-pointers that we lost [against Ireland and Argentina] are not nice.
"I do think we want to get things better together and I know I am saying the same thing over and over.
"We don’t just want to rely on a great defensive read by somebody.
"Our defensive systems should be solid whoever comes in and out, our scrums should stay solid and we need to work on our line-outs and the way we attack and the way we defend.
"In some games, we didn’t play well, but we won. I think the rotating and syncing in all departments can be better."
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Meanwhile, Wales head coach Warren Gatland is under so much pressure that another defeat could mean the end of his second spell in charge of the side.
"You are not human if you don't ask yourself some questions about why you are doing it and do you enjoy it?" Gatland said of the scrutiny and pressure he has come under thanks to the unwanted loss record.
"It is part of the job, isn't it? You have got to take the good with the bad, and the ups with the downs."
Gatland acknowledged having had discussions not only with his family but also with the Welsh Rugby Union in the wake of the Australia defeat.
"I do care passionately about Welsh rugby and that is why I've said that if people feel that the best decision is for me to go, then that's okay, I will move on and look for something else," the Kiwi said.
Gatland took over from compatriot Wayne Pivac in 2022, but in his first stint in charge from 2008-19 he oversaw four Six Nations Championships titles and two appearances at World Cup semifinals.
"I know for a number of years that we felt like the success we had with the national team was papering over the cracks that were underneath," he admitted.
"I mentioned in the past that when the dam burst, it was going to take a while to plug it up again. That is probably where we are at the moment.
"We need to look at the future and the pathway and some of the structures to make some changes.
"I have encouraged the union on a number of occasions to be bold about some of the changes that we make in the best interests of Welsh rugby."
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Players to watch
For Wales: Warren Gatland has made four changes to the starting XV thrashed by Australia to face South Africa in Cardiff on Saturday. Sam Costelow starts at flyhalf for the daunting fixture against the double world champions, while Rio Dyer gets his first run out on the wing with Blair Murray switching to fullback in place of Cam Winnett. Christ Tshiunza replaces the injured Adam Beard in the second row while Taine Plumtree starts at No.8 instead of Aaron Wainwright. Uncapped Gloucester forward Freddie Thomas and his club colleague Josh Hathaway are named on the replacements' bench.
For South Africa: Jaden and Jordan Hendrikse – the 36th set of Springbok brothers – have been paired at halfback for the clash. Jaden is pretty settled in the Bok camp. However, it will be Jordan's second cap for the Boks after making his debut against the Welsh at Twickenham in June. Johan Grobbelaar also gets a start at hooker and there will be a spotlight on his line-out throwing and his general contributions in open play. Bok fans will also be excited to see Cameron Hanekom make his debut off the bench. The loose forward has shown his calibre at franchise level and he could give the Bok coaches something to think about going forward if he grabs his opportunity with both hands.
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Prediction
@rugby365com: South Africa by 35 points or more.
Teams:
Wales: 15 Blair Murray, 14 Tom Rogers, 13 Max Llewellyn, 12 Ben Thomas, 11 Rio Dyer, 10 Sam Costelow, 9 Ellis Bevan, 8 Taine Plumtree, 7 Jac Morgan, 6 James Botham, 5 Christ Tshiunza, 4 Will Rowlands, 3 Archie Griffin, 2 Dewi Lake, 1 Gareth Thomas.
Replacements: 16 Ryan Elias, 17 Nicky Smith, 18 Keiron Assiratti, 19 Freddie Thomas, 20 Tommy Reffell, 21 Rhodri Williams, 22 Eddie James, 23 Josh Hathaway.
South Africa: 15 Aphelele Fassi, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 10 Jordan Hendrikse, 9 Jaden Hendrikse, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Elrigh Louw, 6 Siya Kolisi (captain), 5 Franco Mostert, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Wilco Louw, 2 Johan Grobbelaar, 1 Thomas du Toit.
Replacements: 16 Malcolm Marx, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 Marco van Staden, 20 RG Snyman, 21 Cameron Hanekom, 22 Cobus Reinach, 23 Handre Pollard.
Date: Saturday, November 23
Venue: Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
Kick-off: 17.40 (19.40 SAST; 17.40 GMT)
Referee: Karl Dickson
Assistant referees: Christophe Ridley, Damian Schneider
TMO: Andrew Jackson
Additional reporting by AFP