2011 - What can we expect at the RWC?
Having touched on the first half of the 2011 rugby season, Jan de Koning - in Part Two of his 2011 season preview - takes a look at the Rugby World Cup in New Zealand.
***Click HERE for PART ONE of our season preview!***
The big question - hovering like an ominous storm cloud - is whether the All Blacks can shake the World Cup monkey from their collective backs.
It all starts when they host Tonga in Auckland on September 9 and ends with the RWC Final, at the same venue, just over six weeks later on October 23.
It is worth remembering that the only time the Kiwis won the event, they were the hosts... well, joint hosts... with Australia (in 1987).
The only nations to host and win the tournament are New Zealand (1987) and South Africa (1995).
Hosting the event is not a guarantee of success. England (1991 joint hosts) and Australia (2003 hosts) were runners-up. France (2007 hosts) finished fourth, while Wales (1999 hosts - although they farmed out a substantial number of games) failed to reach the semifinals.
Statistically, Australia have been the most successful World Cup country - they were champions twice (1991 & 1999) and runners-up once (2003). Next best are South Africa (champions twice - 1995 & 2007) and England (champions once, 2003 and runners-up twice, 1991 & 2007).
Next year's hosts, New Zealand, come in a lowly fourth - champions once (1987) and runners-up once (1995). Hence their unwanted tag as a team that peaks between World Cups.
Of those not to have won a title, France have the best record - runners-up twice (1987, 1999), third once (1995) and fourth twice (2003 & 2007). Four teams have reached the quarterfinals, but never progressed beyond that stage: Ireland (four times), Fiji (twice), Samoa (twice) and Canada (once).
Yes, that is an amazing piece of trivia - Canada beating Fiji and Romania at the 1991 World Cup pool matches, losing (13-19) to France and finishing second in their pool. They lost to New Zealand in the quarterfinals.
But I digress.
Back to New Zealand 2011.
The hosts, New Zealand, headline Pool A. The All Blacks face their World Cup bogey team, France, in the pool stages and no doubt will be nervously glancing at the French's form in next year's Six Nations. Tonga, Canada and Japan will be looking for an upset, but few will give them a realistic chance.
Pool B is an intriguing combination of some of the globe's most inconsistent teams - Argentina, who finished third in 2007, but have since lost some key players and any semblance of structure; England, probably the pool favourites, and the unpredictable but dangerous Scotland. Georgia and Romania will hope to avoid the Wooden Spoon.
The tournament's most successful team, Australia, top Pool C and will be fancied to finish first - with Ireland their toughest opposition. Italy, Russia and the United States are capable - but unlikely - to cause an upset.
Pool D features the defending champions, South Africa, in probably the most tricky of all the pools. Wales, erratic at best, have the potential to beat the best. Fiji caused the biggest upset of the 21st century when they knocked Wales out in 2007 and again drew with them in November, while Samoa again look like the team that reached the 1991 and 1995 quarterfinals. Namibia will have their work cut out to avoid four successive hammerings.
rugby365.com Rugby World Cup prediction: Pool A should be New Zealand one and France two; Pool B will most likely see England finish first and Argentina second; Pool C should be topped by Australia and Ireland second; while the clever money is on South Africa finishing top of Pool D and Wales in second place. That would then produce a quarterfinal line-up of France versus England; New Zealand v Argentina; Australia v Wales and South Africa v Ireland. England v France is always a tough call, but I will back the French to cause an upset, which will see them face Australia in one semifinal - with New Zealand likely to face South Africa in the other semifinal. And I will risk a few of my hard-earned dollars on New Zealand beating Australia in the final on October 23.
* What's your call then? Can you pick the Last Four at the 2011 Rugby World Cup?