Bokkie the Dragon slayer?
rugby365 columnist Steve Farrell tells us why he feels that Springbok coach Peter de Villiers is on the right track with his year-end tour planning.
Bok coach Peter de Villiers reckons that Wales present the biggest threat to his Bok side on their three-match tour, and I'd tend to agree with the Bok head honcho.
Wales are a settled side with a great coach and a inspirational leader in Ryan Jones. Yes, they let themselves down big time in South Africa earlier in the year, but those two defeats will play no role whatsoever this weekend.
Stefan Terblanche, who is in Wales visiting his former Ospreys teammates, says Wales are treating their meeting with the Boks as a Final - bad news for the men in green and gold. A fired up Welsh unit is a tough nut to crack.
Wales should provide a sterner test than Scotland or England. The Boks should beat Scotland comfortably, and whilst they have always struggled at Twickenham, England are in a serious re-building phase and I'd be surprised if the Boks didn't beat them.
Wales on the other hand are a different kettle of fish on their home turf and I except a massive physical onslaught from them this weekend. Much as been made about Wales' lack of preparation for this Test, but the Boks haven't exactly had a lot of time together either. Add a new flyhalf to the mix and a hooker playing prop, and Wales will suddenly fancy their chances of getting one over the world champs.
De Villiers has played down talk that Ruan Pienaar and John Smit might be targeted - of course they will - but how they deal with the pressure will be the important factor.
Pienaar's role will be critical. He will need to make sure that his team go forward - when to run and when to kick will be decisions that he will need to be spot on with if the Boks are going to beat Wales.
The Boks are bracing themselves for a huge battle up front and with Pierre Spies at No.8, Ryan Kankowski must be thinking what more he needs to do to get a start in the green and gold. How on earth De Villiers can keep on overlooking the Sharks No.8 is beyond me! He had a superb Super 14 and backed that up with a brilliant Currie Cup campaign, but still seems destined to warm the bench. Incredible.
A big factor will be the weather and whether (no pun intended) the roof at the Millennium Stadium will be open or closed on Saturday. With rain forecast for Saturday, this decision will be crucial. I have a feeling the Welsh will leave the roof open, especially given the fact that De Villiers game-plan is centred around playing so called expansive rugby. Pienaar's role in the No.10 jersey will be even more important if the weather forecast is to be believed.
That brings us to the type of rugby that the Boks are going to play. When it's wet, running rugby goes out of the window. The Boks would be idiotic to try force things in the Cardiff rain. They have a potent pack of forwards and should stick to their strength. Eddie Jones highlighted the fact that the Boks would be "stupid" if they ran it from everywhere in Northern Hemisphere conditions. And who'd want to disagree with Mr Jones.
I still think that the Boks should be too strong for Wales...that's if they play clever rugby. They need to show more structure than they did in the Tri-Nations and they need to be more clinical. They created numerous try-scoring opportunities during the Tri-Nations, but their finishing let them down big time.
Bismarck du Plessis looks set to wear the No.2 jersey for the Boks for a long time. He has forced Peter de Villiers to move the Bok skipper to prop - a clear indication that Du Plessis has established himself as the premier No.2 in South Africa. He has one of the highest work-rates for a tight forward in world rugby, and if it's wet, his ball carrying ability and powerful defence will be a huge asset to the men in green and gold. Bismarck's brute strength is also a huge asset when it comes to effecting turnovers. The Sharks hooker has stolen many a ball from the opposition this season and in the muddy Cardiff weather, his value in the tight exchanges will be paramount.
If I have one criticism of Du Plessis it's that he tends to possess the proverbial 'tunnel vision' when he plays between the four lines. There have been a few occasions this season where he has tried to run over an opponent when a teammate has been in a better position. He needs to develop this part of his game if he wants to establish himself as the world's premier No.2.
Another player who will be feeling the pressure is Adi Jacobs, who has a fit-again Jaque Fourie breathing down his neck. Jacobs surprised all and sundry with a solid showing in the Tri-Nations. but with the world class Fourie back in the mix, Jacobs will need to be on top of his game to keep the World Cup-winning No.13 warming the bench.
The trio of Pienaar, De Villiers and Jacobs have excitement written all over them, but how they combine as a unit will be the important factor. Don't expect fireworks from minute one - Pienaar especially will need time to settle into his new role at flyhalf.
The scoreline is going to be a lot tighter than when Wales visited South Africa's shores earlier in the year, but for me the Boks have too much class in their ranks to be troubled by the Welsh. The weather will be a factor, a huge one at that, but I'd be surprised if the Boks don't run out winners by 10 points. Time will tell...
* Do you agree/disagree with Steve? Debate the matter here.