Looking at the 'tall timber'
rugby365.com columnist Anton van der Merwe looks at the line-outs in the Super 14 competition in the latest contribution of his Statistically Speaking series.
We have had 1,653 line-outs thus far. This is a large sample size and one that will reveal some interesting information. The overall line-out turnover percentage in the Super 14 so far has been 12.5 percent or one in every eight line-outs.
Line-out ball lost to an opponent and skew throws are considered turnovers in this analysis. Some skew throws might be due to the wind but an under pressure line-out also puts pressure on the hooker throwing the ball in. This is evident from the fact that teams with a high number of line-outs lost also have a high number of skew throws (see below).
Line-outs Lost by Team Nationality
The first graph shows the percentage of line-out turnovers by the nationality of the team throwing the ball in vs the nationality of the opponent.
This graph clearly highlights issues with New Zealand teams' line-outs. They top the turnover percentages regardless of who the opposition is. Against South African opposition New Zealand teams turn the ball over almost once every five line-outs!
rugby365.com readers might recall Graham Henry's recent statement regarding key positions in the All Black squad where they lack depth. The lock position was one of the positions singled out in Henry's lament. The extent of the problem becomes evident when you consider the next two graphs. The first graph shows the top four teams with the worst line-out turnover percentage in the Super 14 competition.
Three of the top four line-out turnover teams in the Super 14 are New Zealand teams and they turnover more than one in every five line-outs. The next graph shows the top four teams that are the most secure on their own line-out ball.
Three of the teams in this group are South African teams. The Cheetahs very likely a bit of a surprise. Another telling piece of information in this regard is the fact that the best New Zealand team in line-out possession retention (the Blues) exactly matches the worst South African team (the Lions) at 16.8 percent turnovers.
And The Biggest Poachers Are…
Stats on the biggest line-out poachers in the competition might seem to contradict the above information. For example, from the graph below it is evident that two New Zealand teams feature among the top five poachers (i.e., the Chiefs and the Highlanders).
However, a closer look at the data merely underscores the problem with New Zealand teams' line-outs. The Chiefs capture more than one in three (35.3 percent) of other New Zealand teams' line-out ball but only 10.6 percent (i.e., less than the overall average of 12.5 percent turnovers in the competition) of South African teams' line-out ball. A similar pattern reveals itself for the Highlanders, they poach just over one in every five line-outs from other New Zealand teams. Thus, the New Zealand teams on the biggest poacher list get there largely on the backs of their countrymen.
Moreover, the objective is obviously to poach as many of your opponent's line-out ball and turnover as little of your own as possible. In this regard, the top four winners in the line-out contest with their respective nett gains are, (one) Stormers at plus 14, (2) Brumbies and Cheetahs tied at plus 12, and (4) the Bulls at plus 5.
The biggest losers are, (one) the Lions at minus 11, (2) the Blues at minus 9, and (4) the Force and the Hurricanes tied at minus 7. Most noteworthy of the nett gain/loss line-out stat is the fact that not one of the New Zealand teams are in positive territory! Was Graham Henry understating the All Black's line-out wows?
What About Those Hookers?
That is, the ones responsible for throw the ball into the line-out. Who is the worst and who is the most accurate? As indicated above, teams that loose a lot of their own line-out ball tend to have the most skew throw-ins. The Western Force tops the skew throw-in stat by managing to hand the ball to their opponents 9.3 percent of the time or almost once every tenth line-outs.
The most accurate thrower by some margin is Bismark du Plessis (the Sharks). He has thrown the ball in skew a measly 0.8 percent of the time (that is, only once in 120 line-outs!). The next best is a tie between the Bulls and the Stormers at 1.7 percent, more than double that of du Plessis. One reason Bismark wears the green and gold jumper?
Tactics
In the race for the play-offs these line-out stats seem to point to some clear tactical options in one or two of the crunch games coming up. The Crusaders for one seems a ready target at line-out time (somewhat surprisingly given the presence of big Brad) for teams that top the line-out stats like the Stormers and the Bulls. A similar ploy might benefit the Cheetahs against the Blues, also two teams on the opposite ends of the line-out spectrum. Kick for the corners and turn the heat up in the line-out kitchen?