The Final analyses
rugby365.com columnist Anton van der Merwe takes a statistical look at the Super 14 Final, including the man in the middle - Craig Joubert.
We have reached the final week of the Super 14 competition. Two teams remain to slug it out for the crown. Last week Statistically Speaking looked at the four semi-finalists focusing on set pieces, penalties at the tackle, offense and defense. You can view those stats by clicking HERE. This edition of Statistically Speaking looks at the finalists, including the man in the middle - Craig Joubert.
The Final
The final turned out to be the best attacking team (the Bulls with 51 tries) versus the best defensive team in the competition (the Stormers conceding only 17). Just to emphasize how tight the Stormers defense is – the Bulls conceded more than double (i.e. 35) the Stormers’ tally. The Bulls have simply relied on outscoring their opponents. Will this work on Saturday or will the Stormers prove leak proof yet again?
In Soweto last week the Bulls made quick work of the second best defense in the competition. They ran in four tries against the Crusaders and they were clearly capable of a few more. In contrast, in Cape Town the Stormers shut out the Waratahs, who are no strangers to the try line. For the regular season the Waratahs ended second on the list behind the Bulls for most tries scored.
What an absolute classic awaits us in Soweto this weekend! The blue try machine in the competition versus the storming south easter that blows everything back from their try line.
The Man in the Middle
Craig Joubert was crowned the best referee of the Super 14 and given the whistle for the final. While it is not clear what ‘best’ means or how ‘best’ is determined there are some interesting stats to share form regular league play on the refereeing front.
The first graph looks at the referees with the highest percentage of penalty kicks to total kicks awarded. The average for all referees is 88 percent. That means, referees award free kicks 12 percent of the time and penalty kicks 88 percent of the time.
As can be seen from this graph Craig Joubert manages to bend his arm only 4.9 percent of the time when he doles out a sanction. This is the highest penalty percentage of all the referees in the competition. Does this make for a great referee? wasn't there much talk about free kicks making the game flow more? Or was that the arrangement that led to all those "uncatchable up-and-unders"? In any case, the message seems to that long-arm penalties are a good thing.
For Saturday’s final the above graphic should send some warning signals. Get on the wrong side of Craig Joubert and you might in for a torrid time. In this regard the Bulls and Stormers turn out to be a bit of a mixed bag. The Stormers is a more disciplined side than the Bulls (i.e., less cards and citations through the regular season). On the other hand, the Bulls lead the competition with the least total number of penalties conceded while the Stormers make the top five list for the post penalties conceded.
It would seem a foregone conclusion that more long-arm penalties mean a less flowing game. In the next graph we take a look at stoppages stats for the top five referees with the lowest average number of stoppages over the Super 14 season. The graph below include only referees that officiated four or more games. It should also be noted that the average for all referees that officiated four or more games is 71.0 stoppages per game.
For this stat Craig Joubert comes out second best among all referees. Surprising? Not really, this stats likely indicates the limited effect penalties have on the flow of the game. Or rather the large number of other factors (knock-ons, ball into touch, etc) that factor into the stoppages stat. Craig Joubert seem to be able to let the game flow pretty well, hopefully this will be the case in Soweto on Saturday.
We have seen a top of the charts performance from Craig Joubert on long-arm penalties. What do the stats for him look like on other discipline issues. Two things come to mind: (1) yellow cards, and (2) discipline related penalties.
The next graph shows the top five refs with the most yellow cards dished out. As a bench mark the average for all referees in the competition is 3 total yellow cards.
"Yikes!," you might say, and you would be right. Craig Joubert tops the yellow card stakes by almost three times the average (to be fair, not all referees officiate the same amount of games). Nevertheless, 8 is 60 percent higher than Jonathan Kaplan’s number and a whopping 800 percent higher than Mark Lawrence’s one yellow for the season. Both Kaplan and Lawrence officiated the same number of games as Joubert and Lawrence was of course good enough to get a semi-final.
This latter aspect makes it difficult to conclude that good referees are liberal with flash bright cards around. Although the best referee do walk off with that prize!
The Bulls were on the receiving end of two of Joubert’s 8 cards – the most he gave any single team. The Stormers in their one game where Joubert officiated got none, but then they (almost) had no yellow cards for the season. Getting their first card in the dying minutes of their last regular season game.
The next graph shows the average number of discipline penalties per game by the top five referees for this stat.
Craig Joubert comes in middle of the top five on this stat. Still relatively high but not the highest. Yet another indication that some referees expect you to take your poison and shut up. They don't have a whistle because they like to debate matters.
Finally, both the Bulls (2 games) and the Stormers (1 game) could not win any of their regular season games that Craig Joubert officiated. Hopefully this record doesn't still stand after Saturday…
Enjoy the game.