Scotland v England - Teams and Predictions
SIX NATIONS ROUND ONE: England coach Eddie Jones labelling Scotland "red-hot favourites" for the old rivals' Six Nations opener at Murrayfield on Saturday may be a familiar ploy, but he might have a point.
The 62-year-old Australian is well known for trying to unsettle opponents with some choice words to the media.
But with England beating South Africa, the team that defeated Jones' men in the 2019 World Cup final, last time out, why bother with pre-match mind games?
Injuries, however, have deprived Jones of first-choice captain Owen Farrell and back-up skipper Courtney Lawes, as well as Jonny May, Anthony Watson, Manu Tuilagi, Sam Underhill, Jonny Hill, and the Vunipola brothers for the latest edition of rugby's oldest international fixture.
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England are now set to face a rather more settled Scotland, whom Jones thinks are "probably two years ahead of us in terms of their development".
The Scots will also be playing in front of a 67 000 capacity crowd at their Edinburgh headquarters after a 2021 Six Nations staged behind closed doors because of the coronavirus pandemic.
This weekend's forecast wet and windy weather have often helped cause the Edinburgh downfall of many a more mature England side.
"It's the first time I've had the experience of going up there when Scotland have been red-hot favourites," said Jones.
"They're expected to win...they've got to cope with that."
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No wonder Scotland counterpart Gregor Townsend, whose improving side beat England last year -- the Scots' first Calcutta Cup triumph at Twickenham since 1983, said: "Every coach does this little song and dance going into a game trying to convince the media they're underdogs".
With Farrell and Lawes ruled out, Jones has appointed Tom Curry as captain with the 23-year-old flank England's youngest skipper since Will Carling in 1988.
And in another piece of pre-game theatre, Jones promptly said Curry reminded him of New Zealand great Richie McCaw in that he could "lead by example."
That Jones does things differently to many rugby coaches is because the son of a Japanese-American mother and an Australian father, was very different to the many privately educated rugby players he encountered during his early days in the Sydney club game.
Jones was Australia's coach when they lost the 2033 World Cup final in Sydney to a Jonny Wilkinson-inspired England but, after being sacked two years later, admitted he had "stayed too long" with the Wallabies.
'Calculated decisions'
Yet Jones, often portrayed as an obsessive workaholic with a high turnover of backroom staff, will have had some eight years as England coach by the time his current deal expires after the 2023 World Cup in France.
He may, however, be mellowing judging by his avuncular concern for 22-year-old rising star Marcus Smith, whose talent Jones first spotted when the flyhalf was a teenager.
Now he has preferred Smith to 77-cap veteran George Ford in his starting XV for Saturday, with Jones saying: "Every young 10 starts off at this stage - there are doubts about his experience to handle the pressure of the situation.
"At some stage they play a game bigger than they've ever played. I've got no doubt Marcus has got the desire and the drive to be one of the best 10s in the world...There's no reason why he can't handle Saturday."
It was Smith's last-ditch penalty that sealed a one-point win over the Springboks in November, with Jones saying: "He was able to get use from our 22 to their 22 to kick the goal to win the game.
"He made calculated decisions on when to move the ball and when to kick the ball and he'll do that again on Saturday."
And then, one last jibe.
"I'm sure they are going to come at him. Scotland brag about being able to get into the psychology of England, don't they? So let's see on Saturday."
Players to watch:
For Scotland: In the pack, the return of Jonny Gray is a major boost for Scotland. The Exeter Chiefs second-row missed the entire Nations Series through injury but returns for his 65th cap in Scotland’s Championship opener. Grant Gilchrist joins Gray in an experienced second-row pairing, with Gilchrist now just one cap shy of a half-century of Scottish appearances. Captain Stuart Hogg is always one to keep an eye on. The fullback is part of a very exciting backline that features the likes of powerful runner Duhan van der Merwe, instrumental Finn Russel and lively Chris Harris.
For England: Eddie Jones' decision to hand the captain's armband to Tom Curry has raised a few eyebrows however it could be a stroke of genius. Curry will be helped by his vice-captains Ellis Genge, Luke Cowan-Dickie and Henry Slade. The ever-present Maro Itoji always proved to be a dominant figure in the pack. The other selection that is stealing the headlines is Marcus Smith at flyhalf. With Owen Farrell out with an injury, there are loads of pressure on the young playmaker Smith.
Head to head:
The Scotland backline have the upper hand by no doubt. The fullback encounter between Stuart Hogg against inexperienced Freddie Steward of England will be a major concern for Eddie Jones. While the halfback battle between Scotland's Finn Russell and Ali Price against England's Marcus Smith and Ben Youngs is another one that is top of the list. However, the effectiveness of the backlines could be decided by the performances of the forwards. And despite their vast experience in the pack, Scotland's major Achilles heel remains their set-piece and the likes of Grant Gilchrist, Jonny Gray, Zander Fagerson, George Turner and Rory Sutherland will certainly be put under the pump by Nick Isiekwe, Maro Itoje, Kyle Sinckler, Luke Cowan-Dickie and Ellis Genge.
Recent encounters:
2021: Scotland won 11-6, Twickenham
2020: England won 13-6, Edinburgh
2019: Draw 38-38, Twickenham
2018: Scotland won 25-13, Edinburgh
2017: England won 61-21, Twickenham
2016: England won 15-9, Edinburgh
2015: England won 25-13, Twickenham
Predictions
@rugby365com: Scotland by 12 points
Teams:
Scotland: 15 Stuart Hogg (captain), 14 Darcy Graham, 13 Chris Harris, 12 Sam Johnson, 11 Duhan van der Merwe, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Ali Price, 8 Matt Fagerson, 7 Hamish Watson, 6 Jamie Ritchie, 5 Grant Gilchrist, 4 Jonny Gray, 3 Zander Fagerson, 2 George Turner, 1 Rory Sutherland.
Replacements: 16 Stuart McInally, 17 Pierre Schoeman, 18 WP Nel, 19 Sam Skinner, 20 Magnus Bradbury, 21 Ben White, 22 Blair Kinghorn, 23 Sione Tuipulotu.
England: 15 Freddie Steward, 14 Max Malins, 13 Elliot Daly, 12 Henry Slade, 11 Joe Marchant, 10 Marcus Smith, 9 Ben Youngs, 8 Sam Simmonds, 7 Tom Curry (captain), 6 Lewis Ludlam, 5 Nick Isiekwe, 4 Maro Itoje, 3 Kyle Sinckler, 2 Luke Cowan-Dickie, 1 Ellis Genge.
Replacements: 16 Jamie George, 17 Joe Marler, 18 Will Stuart, 19 Charlie Ewels, 20 Alex Dombrandt, 21 Harry Randall, 22 George Ford, 23 Jack Nowell.
Date: Saturday, February 5
Venue: Murrayfield, Edinburgh
Kick-off: 16.45 (16.45 GMT)
Expected weather: Heavy rain and a gentle breeze. High of 7°C and a low of 3°C
Referee: Ben O’Keeffe (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Nic Berry (Australia), Craig Evans (Wales)
TMO: Ben Whitehouse (Wales)