Preview: S15 Round 10, Part Two
The spotlight will shine brightly on the South African teams in this edition of our preview, even though two of the matches are cross-conference encounters.
With the SA conference a closely contested affair in which all teams are still in the running at the halfway stage, four of the five teams feature in Part Two.
The Lions have a bye and do not feature.
By the end of Saturday's action anyone of the Bulls, Stormers and Sharks could top the SA conference.
Just four log points separate the Bulls on 24 (after eight matches), Stormers on 22 (eight), Lions on 21 (nine) and Sharks on 20 (nine). Even the Cheetahs are not out of the running - as they trail the Sharks by seven points with a game in hand.
We kick off this edition of our preview in Perth, where the Stormers face the Western Force; followed by the match of the weekend - the Sharks versus Bulls in Durban.
The weekend's action is concluded when the Cheetahs will look to make up some lost ground when they host the Reds in Bloemfontein.
Saturday, April 18
Western Force v Stormers
(nib Stadium, Perth - Kick-off: 19.45; 13.45 SAST, 11.45 GMT)
The Force will be hard-pressed to end their seven-match losing streak against a Stormers team that displayed some ominous form against the defending champion Waratahs last week.
Having not won since their Week One victory over the Waratahs in mid-February, the Force go into the match happy with their underdog status.
Coach Michael Foley said Saturday marks another strong challenge for his side - who will be facing a South African team for the fourth consecutive week.
They lost 24-25 to the Bulls in Pretoria and fell 9-15 to the Sharks in Durban, before returning home to Perth where they lost 15-24 yo the Cheetahs last week.
"As with any South African opponent, it's important that we're up for the physical challenge in defence and at the breakdown, which has been a feature of our performances in our past three matches," Foley said.
"While playing physically is a foundation, we have to play smart to finish off the effort that's being put in every week.
"When 'decision making' is mentioned, it's easy to assume there's a level of complexity, but it's a simple focus on firstly creating momentum and secondly playing with awareness to take opportunities we're creating."
Stormers coach Allister Coetzee is adamant they will not take the foot off the gas against a team sitting second from bottom of the standings.
"The big thing for us it to improve on last week's [32-18] win [over the Tahs] and not take it for granted that it will happen again," Coetzee said.
"The biggest mistake we could make is under estimate the Force.
"There is no talk of complacency, but rather energy in the team."
The Stormers mentor said it is crucial to get it right this weekend if they are to have a chance of reclaiming the No.1 ranking in the SA conference - a position they last held after Week Four.
"The biggest thing in this game is about discipline and not giving soft penalties away - which will enable a good kicking side to get territory and they have a good maul as well," Coetzee said, adding: "That is the difference for me from last weekend to this weekend."
Recent results:
2014: Stormers won 24-8, Cape Town
2012: Stormers won 17-3, Perth
2011: Stormers won 51-16, Cape Town
2010: Force won 16-15, Perth
2009: Stormers won 25-24, Cape Town
2008: Stormers won 32-16, Perth
Prediction: The Force are enduring their worst run of form (seven defeats) since losing nine straight at the beginning of their inaugural season in 2006. The Force failed to reach double figures in their last two meetings with the Stormers. They have lost their last three against the South African side by margins of 25, 14 and 16 points respectively. Three of the last four meetings between the sides have seen 32 or fewer points scored. The Stormers are aiming to win consecutive away matches outside of South Africa
for the first time since April 2012, which included a win against the Force. Both Vincent Koch and Ben McCalman have conceded 13 penalties this season, only one other man (Charlie Faumuina, 14) has conceded more. Of course the Force have a chance to win. Anything can happen. But I wouldn't bet my house on a home team win. The Stormers by at least 15 points.
Teams:
Western Force: 15 Dane Haylett-Petty, 14 Luke Morahan, 13 Kyle Godwin, 12 Luke Burton, 11 Nick Cummins, 10 Sias Ebersohn, 9 Alby Mathewson, 8 Ben McCalman, 7 Chris Alcock, 6 Steve Mafi, 5 Adam Coleman, 4 Sam Wykes (c), 3 Tetera Faulkner, 2 Nathan Charles, 1 Pekahou Cowan.
Replacements: 16 Heath Tessmann, 17 Chris Heiberg, 18 Oliver Hoskins, 19 Ross Haylett-Petty, 20 Angus Cottrell, 21 Ian Prior, 22 Zack Holmes, 23 Marcel Brache.
Stormers: 15 Cheslin Kolbe, 14 Kobus van Wyk, 13 Juan de Jongh (captain), 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Dillyn Leyds, 10 Demetri Catrakilis, 9 Louis Schreuder, 8 Nizaam Carr, 7 Schalk Burger, 6 Siya Kolisi, 5 Ruan Botha, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Mbongeni Mbonambi, 1 Steven Kitshoff.
Replacements: 16 Siyabonga Ntubeni, 17 Alistair Vermaak, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 Jean Kleyn, 20 Sikhumbuzo Notshe, 21 Nic Groom, 22 Kurt Coleman, 23 Huw Jones.
Referee: Mike Fraser
Assistant referees: Andrew Lees, Will Houston
TMO: Ian Smith
Sharks v Bulls
(Kings Park, Durban - Kick-off: 17.05; 15.05 GMT)
The Sharks believe they have turned the corner after a tumultuous month that resulted in the suspension of three of their most senior players (including captain Bismarck du Plessis) and defeats in their last two matches.
After the humiliating 10-52 loss to the Crusaders a fortnight ago, they showed some drive in going to lose by just two points (21-23) to the impressive Lions last week - a game they may well have won if a last-minute penalty kick had gone over.
However, they also displayed their vulnerability in going down to the Lions - a match sandwiched between those two impressive victories.
Not surprising then Sharks assistant coach Sean Everitt believes his team has a realistic chance of putting their campaign back on track with a crucial win at home.
"There were a lot of positives to take out of the [Lions] game [last week] and if we can just polish those up a bit, the result could go our way," Everitt said.
"Obviously we're still in with a good shout [of reaching the play-offs], but what we need to do is concentrate on our performances and make sure we rectify the mistakes we've made and that we move forward."
The backline mentor pinpointed workrate and effort as the two big positives to come from their last outing.
"And at times when we kept the ball, we looked very good as well, we scored two nice tries from way out," Everitt said.
"We're happy with the way we're attacking but unfortunately, the unforced errors are counting against us."
Bulls head coach Frans Ludeke described his team's trip to Durban as "massive challenge" for the SA conference leaders.
"We will be facing a Sharks team what will be hurting and desperate to redeem themselves at home and I think it is fair to say that this will be our toughest assignment this year."
The other key factor is the Bulls' vulnerability on the road.
They have won just once in their last 11 away matches - against the Cheetahs in Bloemfontein in Week Four.
Bulls captain Pierre Spies said they will have to show their ability to win away from home consistently if they want to remain in the competition.
"Durban is a tough place to play at and with so much at stake in the SA conference, we really cannot afford to play average rugby,"Spies said.
"This is going to be an epic local derby and we need to front up to it."
Recent results:
2015: Bulls won 43-35, Pretoria
2014: Bulls won 23-19, Pretoria
2014: Sharks won 31-16, Durban
2013: Bulls won 20-19, Pretoria
2013: Bulls won 18-16, Durban
2012: Sharks won 32-10, Durban
2012: Bulls won 18-13, Pretoria
Prediction: The Sharks have lost their last two matches, but have not been beaten three times in a row since May 2013. The Bulls have won eight of the last 11 instances of this fixture but never by a double figure margin. The Sharks' three wins in this run have been by an aggregate difference of 40 points; in those 11 fixtures the Sharks (259) have scored two more points in total than the
Bulls (257). All but one of the Bulls' matches have seen at least 40 points on the board this season, an average of 52 per game.
Only the Crusaders (29.3) have averaged more points than the Bulls (28.6), despite the South Africans rank equalling last for breaks per game (4.9). Jessie Kriel (802) and SP Marais (672) rank first and third for metres gained this season. The Bulls will go into the game as favourites, but you would expect the Sharks to bounce back at some stage. This may well be the game - the Sharks to win a brutal, perhaps even spiteful, encounter by less than 10 points.
Teams:
Sharks: 15 Odwa Ndungane, 14 Sibusiso Sithole, 13 Waylon Murray, 12 Andre Esterhuizen, 11 Lwazi Mvovo, 10 Fred Zeilinga, 9 Cobus Reinach, 8 Renaldo Bothma, 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Marcell Coetzee, 5 Marco Wentzel (captain), 4 Mouritz Botha, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Franco Marais, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.
Replacements: 16 Monde Hadebe, 17 Thomas du Toit, 18 Lourens Adriaanse, 19 Lubabalo Mtyanda, 20 Etienne Oosthuizen, 21 Conrad Hoffmann, 22 Lionel Cronje, 23 SP Marais.
Bulls: 15 Jesse Kriel, 14 Francois Hougaard, 13 JJ Engelbrecht, 12 Burger Odendaal, 11 Bjorn Basson, 10 Handré Pollard, 9 Rudy Paige, 8 Pierre Spies (captain), 7 Jacques du Plessis, 6 Deon Stegmann, 5 Grant Hattingh, 4 Flip van der Merwe, 3 Marcel van der Merwe, 2 Adriaan Strauss, 1 Dean Greyling.
Replacements: 16 Callie Visagie, 17 Morné Mellett, 18 Trevor Nyakane, 19 Arno Botha, 20 Pieter Labuschagne, 21 Piet van Zyl, 22 Tian Schoeman, 23 Jurgen Visser.
Referee: Jaco Peyper
Assistant referees: Marius van der Westhuizen, Archie Sehlako
TMO: Marius Jonker
Cheetahs v Reds
(Free State Stadium, Bloemfontein - Kick-off: 19.10; 03.10 Sunday, April 19 AEST, 17.10 GMT)
This may well be the most entertaining match of the weekend - two teams who enjoy an expansive game, but neither really place a premium on defence.
The Reds have scored just 12 tries (of which four were against the Bulls last week) and leaked 25.
Reds head coach Richard Graham said his side was looking forward to the challenge of taking on the Cheetahs at their home ground.
"This weekend is another fantastic challenge in South Africa," Graham said.
"The group delivered some real positives last week [a 22-43 loss to the Bulls in Pretoria], but we understand we need to tighten up on a number of areas if we are to get a result against the Cheetahs," he said.
"The team have focused a lot this week on our attacking framework and how we can continue to maximize our strengths from prop through to fullback.
"The four tries against the Bulls demonstrated we are heading in the right direction.
"However, each week in Super Rugby there is a need to evolve.
"The Cheetahs enjoy the game becoming loose and with the likes of Sarel Pretorius, Cornal Hendricks and Raymond Rhule they are able to capitalise very quickly.
"Add Heinrich Brüssow to that mix and they become a very capable side."
Cheetahs coach Naka Drotské admitted that, despite their positive finish to their Australasian tour (a win over the Force last week), Saturday is not going to be an easy game.
"The Reds have a lot of game breakers and two of their best players are coming back or this encounter," Drotské said.
"We've put a lot of pressure on ourselves and we need to win.
"If we play the way we know we can play and keep to our structures, then I believe we can win. It is in our hands."
Recent results:
2014: Reds won 43-33, Brisbane
2013: Cheetahs won 27-13, Bloemfontein
2011: Reds won 41-8, Brisbane
2010: Reds won 31-10, Bloemfontein
2009: Reds won 22-3, Brisbane
2008: Cheetahs won 29-14, Bloemfontein
Prediction: The Cheetahs have not triumphed by more than seven points in any of their last six home games, a run which includes three defeats. The Reds have won five of the last seven instances of this match, but have been defeated in four of five away from home. The Reds have lost six in a row, equalling their worst run of form since their worst-ever sequence of nine straight defeats between February and April 2007. Away from home the Reds have lost 10 of their last 11, securing a losing bonus point in two just of those defeats. The Reds have scored fewer points per match (11.6) than any other side so far. The Cheetahs have conceded more points per match (31) than any other side heading into Round 10. The Cheetahs will go into the match as favourites, but it will not be such a big surprise if the reds win. However, we feel the Cheetahs will sneak a win - by less than 10 points.
Teams:
Cheetahs: 15 Coenie van Wyk, 14 Cornal Hendricks, 13 Johann Sadie, 12 Francois Venter, 11 Raymond Rhule, 10 Joe Pietersen, 9 Sarel Pretorius, 8 Willie Britz, 7 Johannes Prinsloo, 6 Heinrich Brüssow, 5 Francois Uys (captain), 4 Carl Wegner, 3 Coenie Oosthuizen, 2 Torsten van Jaarsveld, 1 Burrie Uys.
Replacements: 16 Stephan Coetzee, 17 Danie Mienie, 18 Nicolaas van Dyk, 19 Steven Sykes, 20 Tienie Burger, 21 Tian Meyer, 22 Willie du Plessis, 23 Ryno Benjamin.
Reds: 15 Karmichael Hunt, 14 Lachie Turner, 13 Chris Feauai-Sautia, 12 Samu Kerevi, 11 James O'Connor, 10 Nick Frisby, 9 Will Genia, 8 Adam Thomson, 7 Liam Gill, 6 Curtis Browning, 5 James Horwill, 4 Rob Simmons, 3 Greg Holmes, 2 James Hanson, 1 James Slipper (captain).
Replacements: 16 Andrew Ready, 17 Ben Daley, 18 Sam Talakai, 19 Marco Kotze, 20 Adam Korczyk, 21 Anthony Fainga'a, 22 Campbell Magnay, 23 Chris Kuridrani.
Referee: Jaco van Heerden
Assistant referees: Quinton Immelman, Lourens van der Merwe
TMO: Shaun Veldsman
Compiled by Jan de Koning
@King365ed
@rugby365com
Statistical information provided by Opta Sports