Preview: S15 Round Eight, Part One

You may well call it freaky Friday - two games featuring four teams with vastly differing fortunes.

First up in our Super Rugby Round Eight action is the unbeaten, table-topping Hurricanes - at home to a desperate Stormers team.

This is a straightforward match between two quality teams, who play outstanding rugby and have aspirations of lifting the trophy in July.

However, in the second match on Good Friday we have two teams at the other end of the table and a desperate struggle for a win.

The Rebels, after a promising start, have won just one of their last five games and are sitting outside the top 10 with no realistic chance of a play-off spot.

It gets very murky when you start looking at their opponents, the Reds - a team that has only one win and that was six weeks ago.

The coach is under fire, his job on the line and they have recalled a player under a drug cloud - coming back from a six-week ban after admitting to having peddled cocaine for his teammates while still playing Rugby League.

We look at Friday's matches!

Friday, April 3:

Hurricanes v Stormers

(Westpac Stadium, Wellington - Kick-off: 19.35; 08.35 SAST; 06.35 GMT)

The Hurricanes, the only unbeaten team in the competition, have been bolstered by the return of several All Blacks.

Beauden Barrett, Julian Savea and Ben Franks all return after being rested for last week's bonus-point triumph over the Rebels.

The Stormers get some serious muscle back as well - Duane Vermeulen returning to captain the side after being rested last week, Eben Etzebeth starting after making his comeback off the bench a week ago and Michael Rhodes returning after an injury lay-off.

Stormers forwards coach Matt Proudfoot this week spoke of the need for the Cape Town-based outfit to dominate the collisions - something they failed to do in their losses to the Highlanders (last week) and the Chiefs (three weeks ago).

"The Hurricanes are rightly sitting on top of the table and is a team that has a tremendous ability to strike from out wide and also from turnovers," Proudfoot said in a conference call from the team's training base in the South island holiday resort of Queenstown.

"However, you can't play any New Zealand side if you don't dominate the gainline and if you don't match them with your kicking game.

"If they have ball we need better width in our defensive structure and that will allow us to come off the line a bit harder and make more robust hits."

Proudfoot said there is a need for the pack to have the same "work ethic and appetite" on the road that they so often show at home, at Newlands.

"You need to be pretty direct and pretty physical when you play New Zealand sides."

Hurricanes forwards coach John Plumtree, a familiar face to many of the Stormers - given that he coached the Sharks in Durban for four years from 2008 to 2012 - said the visitors' recent form is not an indication of their true qualities.

"We have a lot of respect for the Stormers," he told the Wellington-based Dominion Post.

"They've been a top side for a long time and I know a lot of them."

Plumtree also made no secret of his admiration of a player like Vermeulen.

"They will be hurting after what happened to them last week [against the Highlanders] and we expect them to respond positively in terms of intensity and everything will go up another few notches this week," he said.

"Their pack is a really good pack, they are a typical South African side, very physical, very blunt, so we have to step up our D [defence]."

Recent results:

2014: Stormers won 19-18, Cape Town

2013: Stormers won 18-16, Palmerston North

2012: Stormers won 39-26, Cape Town

2010: Stormers won 37-13, Cape Town

2009: Hurricanes won 34-11, Wellington

2008: Stormers won 20-12, Cape Town

Prediction: The Hurricanes have lost their last four against the Stormers; however the last two defeats both come by fewer than three points. It is the Stormers' joint-best winning run over the 'Canes, though they have never beaten them five times in a row. The last two matches between the sides have each seen less than 40 points scored in total and they have been settled by two and one-point margins respectively. A win for the Hurricanes will equal their best ever winning streak of seven matches, something they achieved in April 2003. The Stormers have lost their last four games in New Zealand. They have not lost five consecutive away games against New Zealand sides since 1998. The Hurricanes have maintained the best tackling success rate so far this season (90 percent). The Stormers (84.1 percent) rank second-worst when it comes to tackling success rate. You'll get good odds on a Stormers win, so it might be worth a small wager. However, the smart money is on a Hurricanes win - mostly likely by 10 to 15 points.

Teams:

Hurricanes: 15 Nehe Milner-Skudder, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith (captain), 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 TJ Perenara, 8 Victor Vito, 7 Callum Gibbins, 6 Brad Shields, 5 James Broadhurst, 4 Jeremy Thrush, 3 Ben Franks, 2 Motu Matu'u, 1 Reggie Goodes.

Replacements: 16 Brayden Mitchell, 17 Ben May, 18 Chris Eves, 19 Mark Abbott, 20 Adam Hill, 21 Chris Smylie, 22 Rey Lee-Lo, 23 James Marshall.

 

Stormers: 15 Cheslin Kolbe, 14 Kobus van Wyk, 13 Juan de Jongh, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Dillyn Leyds, 10 Demetri Catrakilis, 9 Nic Groom, 8 Duane Vermeulen (captain), 7 Schalk Burger, 6 Siya Kolisi, 5 Manuel Carizza, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Vincent Koch, 2 Siyabonga Ntubeni, 1 Steven Kitshoff.

Replacements: 16 Mbongeni Mbonambi, 17 Oliver Kebble, 18 Frans Malherbe, 19 Ruan Botha, 20 Michael Rhodes, 21 Louis Schreuder, 22 Kurt Coleman

23 Huw Jones.

 

Referee: Rohan Hoffmann

Assistant referees: Kane McBride, Mike Lash

TMO: Chris Wratt

Rebels v Reds

(AAMI Park, Melbourne - Kick-off: 19.40; 18.40 Queensland time; 08.40 GMT)

It is the first of this season's derbies between the states of Victoria and Queensland.

Like the Rebels the week prior, the Reds saw firsthand the quality a rejuvenated Lions outfit is bringing to Super Rugby, as they sewed up a third win from their four-game Australasian tour.

Wallaby star Quade Cooper - a frustrated figure that was involved in several off-the-ball skirmishes and even took to throwing punches at opponents - had a last-minute drop-goal charged down, as the Reds went down 17-18-17.

The Rebels, against the unbeaten Hurricanes in Wellington, lost by a much larger margin - 12-36. However, they were also well in the contest, until two late tries saw the table-topping Hurricanes run away with the game.

The spice to this encounter in Melbourne will be provided by a number of returning players - with disgraced Rugby League convert Karmichael Hunt on top of that list.

Star loose forward Liam Gill, who served a ban for foul play, is also available again.

Reds head coach Richard Graham said he is a "huge admirer" of Gulls's workrate.

"Around the breakdown he is one of the best in Australia,"Graham said, adding: "Him coming back in as a genuine threat on the ball will help us on Friday."

Losing to the Lions was a disaster for a Reds team now in 14th spot.

"We understand that we need to start winning," the coach said.

"Our stats - including running metres and linebreaks - were all much better [against the Lions], so not transferring that to the scoreboard was very disappointing for everyone in our dressing room," Graham added.

Recent results:

2014: Reds won 36-20, Melbourne

2014: Rebels won 30-27, Brisbane

2013: Reds won 33-20, Brisbane

2013: Reds won 23-13, Melbourne

2012: Reds won 32-17, Melbourne

2012: Reds won 11-6, Brisbane

Prediction: The Reds' largest ever Super Rugby win (53-3) came against the Rebels in their first meeting with their Melbourne rivals in March 2011. The last three matches between the sides have produced over 50 points apiece. The Rebels are enduring their worst ever run of form at home having lost their last seven in Melbourne. The Reds have lost eight of their last nine away matches, gaining a losing bonus point in just two of those. The Rebels have the lowest line-out success rate in the competition (76 percent). Just two other sides have a better line-out success rate than the Reds (90 percent). Calling the winner of this encounter is akin to playing Two-up - that traditional Australian gambling game. Yes, indeed, toss a couple of coins and see if you can guess the outcome. Well, if we must, we'll go with the home team and say the Rebels will win by less than 10 points.

Teams:

Rebels: 15 Mike Harris, 14 Tom English, 13 Tamati Ellison, 12 Mitch Inman, 11 Sefanaia Naivalu, 10 Jack Debreczeni, 9 Nic Stirzaker, 8 Scott Higginbotham, 7 Scott Fuglistaller, 6 Sean McMahon, 5 Lopeti Timani, 4 Luke Jones, 3 Paul Alo-Emile, 2 Pat Leafa, 1 Toby Smith.

Replacements: 16 Tom Sexton, 17 Cruze Ah-Nau, 18 Tim Metcher, 19 Cadeyrn Neville, 20 Colby Fainga’a, 21 Luke Burgess, 22 Jordy Reid, 23 Bryce Hegarty.

Reds: 15 Lachie Turner, 14 Chris Feauai-Sautia, 13 Samu Kerevi, 12 Anthony Fainga'a, 11 James O'Connor, 10 Quade Cooper, 9 Will Genia, 8 Jake Schatz, 7 Liam Gill, 6 Adam Thomson, 5 James Horwill, 4 Dave McDuling, 3 Greg Holmes, 2 James Hanson, 1 James Slipper (captain).

Replacements: 16 Ben Daley, 17 Saia Fainga'a, 18 Sef Faagase, 19 Marco Kotze, 20 Curtis Browning, 21 Nick Frisby, 22 Chris Kuridrani, 23 Karmichael Hunt.

Referee: Matt O'Brien (Australia)

Assistant referees: Andrew Lees (Australia), Michael Hogan (Australia)

TMO: George Ayoub (Australia)

Compiled by Jan de Koning

@King365ed

@rugby365com

Statistical information provided by Opta Sports