Preview: S15 Round Seven, Part One
The Rebels head to Wellington to face a decidedly under-par Hurricanes this Friday, as the Super Rugby season approaches the halfway stage.
While the Rebels have not exactly threatened any team since their opening round victory over the Crusaders, they will fancy their chances against a Hurricanes team sans several key All Blacks.
These two sides have produced some fascinating contests since the Rebels' 2011 inception.
In Friday's other outing the Reds, like their compatriots the Rebels, will look to put a rocky start to the season behind them when they host the Lions in Brisbane.
While the Reds come off a bye, the Lions are Fresh from their upset win over The Rebels last week.
We look at Friday's matches!
Friday, March 27
Hurricanes v Rebels
(Westpac Stadium, Wellington - Kick-off: 19.35; 17.35 AEDT; 06.35 GMT)
The decision by Hurricanes coach Chris Boyd to rest a number of All Blacks has produced a serious threat to the New Zealand franchise's unbeaten run.
Sitting pretty at the top of the standings with five wins from five starts, the Hurricanes will be sans Beauden Barrett, Ben Franks and Julian Savea.
Boyd, speaking to the New Zealand media this week, was at pains to stress that he is not disrespecting the Rebels, who have just two wins from their five starts.
However, given the 'request' of the New Zealand Rugby Union his All Blacks will be rotated and rested over the next five matches.
"It's a tough situation, but we've taken the approach the New Zealand conference games represent double points really, so it's highly unlikely we will rest our All Blacks against any of the New Zealand teams," Boyd told The Dominion Post.
"When we looked at what was coming up - the Rebels, Stormers, Waratahs, Reds and Sharks - we decided that have got to try and get our rests in amongst those games.
"We have a very tough back-end of the season - we play the Crusaders twice, the Chiefs twice, the Highlanders and Blues again, so all New Zealand games.
"We'd like to be close to having all our rotations done by the end of this block."
What has been most impressive about the Wellingtonians has been their ability to grind out results in tough situations, such as last week's win over a gallant Highlanders outfit in Dunedin.
They have great depth in their squad, with All Blacks Cory Jane, Ma'a Nonu and Conrad Smith still there.
The Rebels will look back last Friday's defeat to the Lions as one that got away.
However, the challenge of taking on the competition leaders in their own backyard comes at a good time for a Rebels team motivated to hit back, and buoyed by strong form on the road with wins against the Crusaders and the Western Force to kick off their travels this year.
Previous results:
2014: Hurricanes won 25-15, Melbourne
2012: Hurricanes won 66-24, Wellington
2011: Rebels won 42-25, Melbourne
Prediction: The Hurricanes' last home match against the Rebels, in May 2012, represents their highest ever points haul (66) in a Super Rugby match. The same game also marks the most points conceded by the Rebels in a Super Rugby game. The match ended 66-24. The three matches between these sides have produced 197 points in total with final scores of 25-15 (2014), 66-24 (2012) and 42-25 (2011). The Rebels have the lowest line-out success rate (79 percent) this season. Opponents of the Hurricanes have spent longer in possession (16 minutes 29 seconds) than against any other side this season. Despite the absence of key players, the Hurricanes still have too much fire power for a Rebels team that is just not consistent enough. The Hurricanes by 15 points.
Teams:
Hurricanes: 15 Jason Woodward, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith (captain), 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 Matt Proctor, 10 James Marshall, 9 TJ Perenara, 8 Victor Vito, 7 Callum Gibbins, 6 Brad Shields, 5 James Broadhurst, 4 Jeremy Thrush, 3 Ben May, 2 Motu Matu'u, 1 Reggie Goodes.
Replacements: 16 Brayden Mitchell, 17 Jeffery Toomaga-Allen, 18 Chris Eves, 19 Mark Abbott, 20 Adam Hill, 21 Chris Smylie, 22 Otere Black, 23 Nehe Milner-Skudder.
Rebels: 15 Mike Harris, 14 Tom English, 13 Tamati Ellison, 12 Mitch Inman, 11 Sefanaia Naivalu, 10 Jack Debreczeni, 9 Nic Stirzaker, 8 Scott Higginbotham, 7 Scott Fuglistaller, 6 Sean McMahon, 5 Cadeyrn Neville, 4 Luke Jones, 3 Laurie Weeks, 2 Pat Leafa, 1 Toby Smith.
Replacements: 16 Tom Sexton, 17 Cruze Ah-Nau, 18 Paul Alo-Emile, 19 Radike Samo, 20 Colby Fainga'a, 21 Ben Meehan, 22 Bryce Hegarty, 23 Jonah Placid.
Referee: Stuart Berry (South Africa)
Assistant referees: Craig Joubert (South Africa), Shane McDermott (New Zealand)
TMO: Aaron Paterson (New Zealand)
Reds v Lions
(Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane - Kick-off: 19.00; 11.00 SAST; 09.00 GMT)
The Reds, buoyed by the return of several key Wallabies, see the Lions as a stepping stone to revive their campaign and keep alive their goal of reaching the play-offs.
Reds coach Richard Graham said his team has benefitted hugely from last week's bye and will be able to end their three-match losing streak.
"In recent years eight wins and some bonus points got teams into the play-offs and there are still 11 games left." Graham added.
However, he admitted the Lions pose a unique set of threats.
"They are a very different side to the traditional South African side," the Reds coach said, adding: "They move the ball very well and very creative - not too dissimilar to the Cheetahs."
Lions coach Johan Ackermann feels his team could have the momentum - having won two of their last three games and are fresh from last week's impressive come-from-behind victory over the Rebels.
Ackermann felt defence will again be a key aspect for his brave charges.
"Hopefully we can produce another solid showing in that facet," he told rugby365, adding: "You just needed to see the faces of Warren Whiteley and Warwick Tecklenburg after the match against the Rebels to realise how the players put their bodies on the line."
"Our support play has also been great in the last few weeks.
"However, the one area that will be key if we want a realistic chance to win will be our set pieces, scrums and line-outs.
"We have to ensure they don't have all the possession. The Reds have some really dangerous players and, as we saw against the Rebels last week, you can only defend for so long.
"They are also one of the teams that can retain the ball for long periods, so we will have to control the possession more."
Recent results:
2014: Lions won 23-20, Johannesburg
2012: Reds won 34-20, Brisbane
2011: Reds won 30-25, Johannesburg
2010: Reds won 41-26, Johannesburg
2009: Lions won 31-20, Brisbane
2008: Reds and Lions drew 24-all, Johannesburg
Prediction: The Lions won this fixture last year, but they have never managed consecutive victories against the Reds. The Lions were victorious in two of their last three visits to Suncorp Stadium, though this run dates back to 2007. The losing side has scored exactly 20 points in the last two meetings between the sides, as well as the last three at Suncorp. The Reds (7.8) and Lions (13) rank last and second last for average points this season. The Reds are the only side yet to score a try in the opening quarter of matches. The Lions always have a chance, based purely on their resilience. However, they will need to be within one score going into the final quarter if they are to have a realistic chance. However, the Reds are getting enough class back to ensure they start as favourites and should win by 10 points or less.
Teams:
Reds: 15 Lachie Turner, 14 Chris Kuridrani, 13 Samu Kerevi, 12 Anthony Fainga'a, 11 James O'Connor, 10 Quade Cooper, 9 Will Genia, 8 Jake Schatz, 7 Curtis Browning, 6 Adam Thomson, 5 Dave McDuling, 4 James Horwill, 3 Sam Talakai, 2 James Hanson, 1 James Slipper (captain).
Replacements: 16 Saia Fainga'a, 17 Ben Daley, 18 Greg Holmes, 19 Marco Kotze, 20 Michael Gunn, 21 Nick Frisby, 22 Ben Tapuai, 23 Chris Feauai-Sautia.
Lions: 15 Andries Coetzee, 14 Ruan Combrinck, 13 Lionel Mapoe, 12 Harold Vorster, 11 Sampie Mastriet, 10 Elton Jantjies, 9 Ross Cronje, 8 Warren Whiteley (captain), 7 Warwick Tecklenburg, 6 Derick Minnie, 5 Franco Mostert, 4 Robert Kruger, 3 Ruan Dreyer, 2 Robbie Coetzee, 1 Schalk van der Merwe.
Replacements: 16 Armand van der Merwe, 17 Jacques van Rooyen, 18 Julian Redelinghuys, 19 Martin Muller, 20 Jaco Kriel, 21 Francois de Klerk, 22 Marnitz Boshoff, 23 Howard Mnisi.
Referee: Glen Jackson (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Rohan Hoffmann (Australia), Will Houston (Australia)
TMO: James Leckie (Australia)
Compiled by Jan de Koning
@King365ed
@rugby365com
Statistical information provided by Opta Sports