Preview: S15 Round Three, Part One
It may be early days yet, just two rounds played, but already some interesting trends are beginning to develop in the last addition of a 15-team Super Rugby tournament.
Some teams have had more problems off the field than on it, while others are in supreme form.
The weekend's Round Three action kicks off in Dunedin on Friday - between two teams with plenty of off-field drama - the reds caught up in the Karmichael Hunt cocaine saga and the Highlanders battling illness and personal problems.
After that it is a quick hop across the Tasman Sea and then a flight across Australia to Perth - where the Western Force will look to bounce back from last week's disappointing loss when they face the unbeaten Hurricanes.
The Friday action is concluded with a trip across the Indian Ocean, where the Cheetahs - having had a bye in Round Two after a win in the opening week - host a Blues team with all kinds of disciplinary issues.
We look at Friday's matches!
Friday, February 27
Highlanders v Reds
(Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin - Kick-off: 19.35; 06.35 GMT; 16.35 AEST)
In Brisbane the fall-out of the Karmichael Hunt cocaine sage continued to cause shockwaves - with media briefings continued to be dominated about the code-hopper, despite Hunt having been put on ice.
The Highlanders, after their bitterly disappointing loss to the Crusaders last week, have been unable to get a proper training session in all week.
Top of the list of absentees is prop Kane Hames, who was slapped with a five-week ban for foul play.
Co-captain Nasi Manu picked up a bout of food poisoning, flyhalf Lima Sopoaga returned home to Wellington to be with his ill father and prop Ross Geldenhuys welcomed a second boy into his family on Tuesday.
While Manu has been short-listed to play, but Sopoaga has been ruled out - along with flank Shane Christie (hamstring) and midfield back Shaun Treeby (knee), who both missed last week's outing with injuries.
Highlanders coach Jamie Joseph said his team was well off the expected standards against the Crusaders and will have to raise the bar considerably.
Joseph was also brutally honest about Hames' ban.
''Clearly Kane was in the wrong,"he told the Otago Daily Times.
"He hit a player, and you can't do that in footy. Five weeks might sound severe but I guess that is the lesson we have to learn.
''We really need a player like that. He was one of our best players last year but when things like that happen, the whole team suffers.''
However, Joseph's problems pale in comparison with the media circus that followed Reds mentor Richard Graham this week.
Hunt has not trained with the team and won't play till his court appearance next month.
Graham said it was in "the best interests of Hunt's welfare" that he was not involved around the Reds squad until he appeared in court.
The reds coach said last weekend's win over the Force was a positive one, but they had shifted focus to the Highlanders almost immediately.
"Whilst last week's win was hugely important, this week is a new challenge and we have been heavily focused on ensuring we get the mindset right," Graham said.
"We are chasing small improvements in our performances every week and the only way you'll achieve that is by starting the process over at the beginning of each week.
"Leading into a game we have control over our attitude and preparation."
Recent results:
2014: Reds won 38-31, Brisbane
2013: Reds won 34-33, Dunedin
2012: Reds won 19-13, Brisbane
2010: Reds won 38-36, Brisbane
2009: Highlanders won 24-19, Ivercargill
2008: Reds won 22-16, Brisbane
Prediction: The Reds' current four-match winning streak against the Highlanders is their best run of form in the history of this fixture. The last six clashes between these sides have all been settled by seven or fewer points. The Reds have managed a better line-out success rate (97 percent) than any other side so far this season, landing 30 of 31 throws. They have also managed the most steals (six). The Highlanders are one of two sides (along with the Bulls) to see their opponents win all of their scrum feeds so far (20/20). The Reds sit bottom of the charts for all the main attacking attributes after two rounds; carries, metres, clean breaks, defenders beaten and offloads. Encounters between these two teams are never short of drama, which makes it tough to call. However, we feel the Highlanders may end their losing streak against the Reds and win by less than 10 points.
Teams:
Highlanders: 15 Ben Smith (co-captain), 14 Waisake Naholo, 13 Malakai Fekitoa, 12 Jason Emery, 11 Patrick Osborne, 10 Marty Banks, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Nasi Manu (co-captain), 7 John Hardie, 6 Elliot Dixon, 5 Mark Reddish, 4 Tom Franklin, 3 Ross Geldenhuys, 2 Ash Dixon, 1 Brendon Edmonds.
Replacements: 16 Liam Coltman, 17 Josh Hohneck, 18 Ma'afu Fia, 19 Joe Wheeler, 20 Dan Pryor, 21 Fumiaki Tanaka, 22 Hayden Parker, 23 Kurt Baker.
Reds: 15 Lachie Turner, 14 Chris Kuridrani, 13 Samu Kerevi, 12 Anthony Fainga'a, 11 Chris Feauai-Sautia, 10 James O'Connor, 9 Will Genia, 8 Jake Schatz, 7 Liam Gill, 6 Adam Thomson, 5 Marco Kotze, 4 Dave McDuling, 3 Sam Talakai, 2 Saia Fainga'a, 1 James Slipper (captain).
Replacments: 16 James Hanson, 17 Ben Daley, 18 Sef Faagase, 19 Tom Murday, 20 Curtis Browning, 21 Nick Frisby, 22 Sam Johnson, 23 Campbell Magnay.
Referee: Glen Jackson (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Kane McBride (New Zealand), Jamie Nutbrown (New Zealand)
TMO: Vinny Munro (New Zealand)
Western Force v Hurricanes
(nib Stadium, Perth - Kick-off: 19.00; 11.00 GMT; 00.00 Saturday, February 28 NZ Time)
The Western Force, after an impressive start with a win over the Waratahs in Sydney, flopped spectacularly against the reds in Brisbane last week.
They appear to have returned to their most erratic form. It is unsure how much the one-off-on-again build-up - the result of a tropical in Brisbane - impacted on the Perth players.
Commitment and composure under pressure characterised the Hurricanes' two opening wins of the season - over the Lions and the Bulls.
They will look to replicate that in the final match of their road trip.
The Hurricanes could expect another torrid battle against the Force, who aren't flashy, but will tough it out for 80 minutes and attempt to wear down their opposition.
The Force are still without regular captain and flank Matt Hodgson, last year's leading Super Rugby tackler, who suffered a pre-season hamstring injury. In his absence, No.8 Ben McCalman is a superb close-quarter tradesman and his contest with his Hurricanes opposites should be a key feature of this match.
The battle for set-piece possession will likely go a long way to determining the outcome.
The Hurricanes' scrum went well against the traditionally strong Bulls pack last week, so they will be looking to continue to their early season ascendancy in this area.
The Hurricanes have their bye after this match, so another positive performance will put them in good stead ahead of their first home encounter against the Blues in Palmerston North on March 13.
Recent results:
2013: Hurricanes won 22-16, Wellington
2012: Hurricanes won 46-19, Perth
2011: Hurricanes won 34-28, Palmerston North
2010: Hurricanes won 47-22, Wellington
2009: Hurricanes won 28-27, Perth
2008: Hurricanes won 21-10, Wellington
Prediction: The 'Canes have won the last six matches between these teams who last met in 2013. In two of their last five wins over the Western Australia side, the Hurricanes have come from behind at half-time to triumph. The Force's line-out (69 percent) and scrum (59 percent) success rates are the lowest in the competition after two rounds. The Canes have won the most turnovers so far this year (24), as well as the most scrums (22). The Hurricanes are aiming for three consecutive away wins for the first time since May to June 2012. The Hurricanes are undoubtedly one of the form teams and it will take something special by the Western Force top end their run. The Hurricanes to win by 10 points or more.
Teams:
Western Force: 15 Luke Burton, 14 Luke Morahan, 13 Kyle Godwin, 12 Solomoni Rasolea, 11 Marcel Brache, 10 Zack Holmes, 9 Alby Mathewson, 8 Ben McCalman, 7 Brynard Stander, 6 Angus Cottrell, 5 Steve Mafi, 4 Sam Wykes (captain), 3 Tetera Faulkner, 2 Nathan Charles, 1 Pekahou Cowan.
Replacements: 16 Heath Tessmann, 17 Chris Heiberg, 18 Oliver Hoskins, 19 Rory Walton, 20 Kane Koteka, 21 Ian Prior, 22 Sias Ebersohn, 23 Mitchell Scott.
Hurricanes: 15 James Marshall, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Rey Lee-Lo, 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 Chris Smiley, 8 Victor Vito, 7 Brad Shields, 6 Ardie Savea, 5 James Broadhurst, 4 Blade Thomson, 3 Ben Franks, 2 Dane Coles (captain), 1 Reggie Goodes.
Replacements: 16 Brayden Mitchell, 17 Jeffery Toomaga-Allen, 18 Chris Eves, 19 Mark Abbott, 20 Callum Gibbins, 21 TJ Perenara, 22 Matt Proctor, 23 Nehe lner-Skudder.
Referee: Marius van der Westhuizen (South Africa)
Assistant referees: Angus Gardner (Australia), Graham Cooper (Australia)
TMO: George Ayoub (Australia)
Cheetahs v Blues
(Free State Stadium, Bloemfontein - Kick-off: 19.10; 18.10 GMT; 06.10 NZ Time Saturday, February 28)
Cheetahs coach Naka Drotské felt his team made the perfect start and must kick on from here.
"We have gained a lot of confidence from the game against the Sharks," Drotské told a media briefing.
"We haven't started well in the competition in the past, but we have done so this year," said Drotské.
"We not only beat them [the Sharks] in Durban, but got five points in doing so.
"There was no need to really ring the changes and the side stays as is, mostly because we want to reward the players for their efforts at Kings Park."
Drotské said he was satisfied with all aspects of his side's game, and hoped to produce a similar performance against the Blues.
"We did a lot of things very well against the Sharks. We scrummed really well and we defended like our lives depended on it.
"We also did well on the attack and want to take that momentum forward against a side that is going to be very direct and physical in their approach to the game.
"We expect a huge battle and we have prepared as such."
The Blues, in contrast, are faced with an almost farcical inability to win away from home.
Under coach John Kirwan the Blues won just once on the road last year - against in Perth against the Force. And in 2013 they also had just one away victory.
They need a win on Friday to lift the dark pall of gloom.
After this week the Blues have just one home game, against the Lions, before another three-match road-trip - when they face the Hurricanes, Waratahs and Chiefs.
No doubt they could be in a deep mire if they head home to Auckland with three consecutive defeats at the start of the season and knowing they have another tough away stretch to follow.
The pressure on Kirwan, in the last year of his contract, will increase significantly if they don't come up with a winning streak soon.
That can will only be achieved if they discard the brainless, overly physical approach that coast them so dearly against the Stormers last week - a red card to a key player and deserved defeat.
Recent results:
2014: Blues won 40-30, Auckland
2013: Cheetahs won 34-13, Bloemfontein
2011: Blues won 29-22, Auckland
2010: Cheetahs won 36-32, Bloemfontein
2009: Blues won 46-12, North Harbour
2008: Blues won 50-26, Bloemfontein
Prediction: The last six games between these sides have seen an average of 62 combined points scored. The last five games between these teams have been won by the home side. The Blues have never lost their first three games of a Super Rugby season. The Blues are the only side to land all of their attempts at goal so far this season. They have also landed the joint-most penalty shots (nine). The Cheetahs are aiming for consecutive victories for the first time since May 2013. The Cheetahs shed a lot of experience and a good serving of Springbok caps in the off-season and it seems those departures did more good than harm. Only time will tell, but we feel they will produce an entertaining game and win by 10 points or more.
Teams:
Cheetahs: 15 Willie le Roux, 14 Cornal Hendricks, 13 Francois Venter, 12 Michael van der Spuy, 11 Raymond Rhule, 10 Joe Petersen, 9 Sarel Pretorius, 8 Willie Britz, 7 Teboho Mohoje, 6 Jean Cook, 5 Francois Uys (captain), 4 Carl Wegner, 3 Coenie Oosthuizen, 2 Torsten van Jaarsveld, 1 Danie Mienie.
Replacements: 16 Stephan Coetzee, 17 Burrie Uys, 18 Nicolaas van Dyk, 19 Tienie Burger, 20 Johannes Prinsloo, 21 Tian Meyer, 22 Willie du Plessis, 23 Johann Sadie.
Blues: 15 Lolagi Visinia, 14 Melani Nanai, 13 Charles Piutau, 12 Hamish Northcott, 11 Tevita Li, 10 Ihaia West, 9 Jimmy Cowan, 8 Jerome Kaino, 7 Brendon O'Connor, 6 Luke Braid, 5 Patrick Tuipulotu, 4 Josh Bekhuis, 3 Charlie Faumuina, 2 James Parsons, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Replacements: 16 Matt Moulds, 17 Ofa Tu'ungafasi, 18 Angus Ta'avao, 19 Steven Luatua, 20 Akira Ioane, 21 Jamison Gibson-Park, 22 Simon Hickey, 23 Francis Saili.
Referee: Rohan Hoffmann (Australia)
Assistant referees: Andrew Lees (Australia), Lourens van der Merwe (South Africa)
TMO: Johan Greeff (South Africa)
Compiled by Jan de Koning
@King365ed
@rugby365com
Statistical information provided by Opta Sports