S15 Preview: Crusaders v Bulls
The Bulls will aim to scale their own Everest when they front up to the Crusaders in the first of this year's Super Rugby play-offs matches.
Bookmakers are giving the Crusaders as much as an 11-point handicap - suggesting that not only do they expect them to win, but that it could be a rout.
For play-off matches such a large handicap is rare, but it does show the enormity of the challenge facing the South African visitors in Christchurch on Saturday.
However, there are other indicators as to why the seven-time champion Crusaders are fancied to advance to the semifinals for the 11th straight year.
The last South African team to beat the Crusaders at home was the Cats, back in 2001. The Bulls (then still Northern Transvaal) last won in Christchurch in 1996.
SA teams are not alone in their struggles to overcome the Crusaders at home. In 117 home matches since Super Rugby went professional in 1996 the Crusaders have lost only 17 times - an average of just once a year.
They also hold the longest home winning streak, 26 matches, in Super Rugby.
Despite the odds stacked against them, the Bulls are determined to end the run of the competition's most successful team.
"It is the play-offs," Bulls captain Pierre Spies told this website from the team's base in Christchurch.
"They have built some nice momentum in recent weeks," he said of Crusaders, who won two of their three matches since the June break.
"However, in the play-offs you need to win by only one point.
"They obviously do have home ground advantage and is a quality outfit that reached the play-offs every year for the last decade. We know it will be a tall order."
The travel factor - having to move across 10 times zones for the match - and the conditions also count against the visitors.
Spies admitted that despite a win over the Crusaders in Pretoria earlier this year, the Bulls will have to raise the bar considerably.
"We have to be clinical in our execution," he said, adding: "Obviously both teams have their game plans in place and are determined to get into the semifinal.
"That is why it will be vital that we are clinical in our execution ... be that on attack or defence.
"We will also have to be disciplined."
Following their patchy scrum performance against the Lions last week, the Bulls face an All Black-laden Crusaders pack.
"We are certainly not happy with that aspect of our game against the Lions," Spies told this website, adding: "It did improve in the second half, but we will have to make a big step up in the scrums against a very powerful Crusaders pack."
Players to watch:
For the Crusaders: You can pick all 22 players, but there will always be two that stand out - Dan Carter at flyhalf and Richie McCaw among the loose forwards. Yes, Israel Dagg sometimes dazzle, Robbie Fruean is powerful and Zac Guildford is a menace with ball in hand. Luke Romano is the new muscle in the Crusaders pack, while the Franks brothers, Owen and Ben, could cause havoc in the scrums as they continue their version of relay rugby.
For the Bulls: In a starting XV that has 14 Springboks there are obviously many candidates, but they key player for the Bulls is scrumhalf Francois Hougaard. Their game plan revolves around the decision-making of the No.9 - if he gets it right he could cause all kinds of havoc in Christchurch. It is also worth keeping an eye on Juandre Kruger, as he continues to grow into the role of line-out maestro.
Head to head: It is captain versus captain - Richie McCaw (Crusaders) versus Pierre Spies (Bulls). Their styles are vastly different, but their impact on the game equally important. Then you can't ask for a more intriguing battle than the two flyhalves - Dan Carter (Crusaders) against Morné Steyn (Bulls), two of the biggest match-winners in the game. Again, their respective approaches differ, but the importance to their respective teams is indispensable.
Recent results:
2012: Bulls won 32-30, Pretoria
2011: Crusaders won 27-0, Timaru
2010: Bulls won 39-24, Soweto (semifinal)
2010: Bulls won 40-35, Pretoria
2009: Bulls won 36-23, Pretoria (semifinal)
Head-to-head in play-offs:
2010: Bulls won 39-24, Soweto (semifinal)
2009: Bulls won 36-23, Pretoria (semifinal)
2007: Bulls won 27-12, Pretoria (semifinal)
2006: Crusaders won 35-15, Christchurch (semifinal)
Prediction: You can't argue with seven titles in 16 years and having reached the semifinals every year for a decade. The Crusaders, in their 24 appearances in play-offs have won 18 times (a 75 percent strike rate). However, the Bulls have a pretty decent track record of their own - three titles since 2007. Apart from the Crusaders, only one other team can match the Bulls in the professional era - the Blues with their three titles. In their nine appearances in the play-offs the Bulls have won six times - a pretty handy strike rate. It is going to be a classic and will be a lot closer than the bookmakers suggest. In fact the Bulls will come very close, but the Crusaders will sneak it in the end ... by about five points.
Teams:
Crusaders: 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Adam Whitelock, 13 Robbie Fruean, 12 Ryan Crotty, 11 Zac Guildford, 10 Dan Carter, 9 Andy Ellis, 8 Richie McCaw (captain), 7 Matt Todd, 6 George Whitelock, 5 Samuel Whitelock, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Corey Flynn, 1 Wyatt Crockett.
Replacements: 16 Quentin MacDonald, 17 Ben Franks, 18 Tom Donnelly, 19 Luke Whitelock, 20 Willi Heinz, 21 Tom Taylor, 22 Sean Maitland.
Bulls: 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Akona Ndungane, 13 JJ Engelbrecht, 12 Wynand Olivier, 11 Bjorn Basson, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Francois Hougaard, 8 Pierre Spies (captain), 7 Dewald Potgieter, 6 Jacques Potgieter, 5 Juandré Kruger, 4 Flip van der Merwe, 3 Werner Kruger, 2 Chiliboy Ralepelle, 1 Dean Greyling.
Replacements: 16 Willie Wepener, 17 Frik Kirsten, 18 Wilhelm Steenkamp, 19 Deon Stegmann, 20 Jano Vermaak, 21 Louis Fouché, 22 Francois Venter.
Date: Saturday, July 21
Venue: AMI Stadium, Christchurch
Kick-off: 19.35 (07.35 GMT)
Expected weather: Mostly cloudy, but little chance of rain. Light winds. High of 12°C and a low of 3°C
Referee: Jaco Peyper (South Africa)
Assistant referees: Keith Brown (New Zealand), Glen Jackson (New Zealand)
TMO: Garratt Williamson (New Zealand)
By Jan de Koning