S15 Preview: Round Twelve, Part One
Basement dwellers the Blues and Lions get things started in Round Twelve of Super Rugby in another weekend filled with bumper to bumper rugby action to keep you on the edge of your seat.
The action on Friday begins at the bottom of the log, where the Blues and Lions will both be fancying their chances of putting an end to a long losing streak in the competition.
Next it's off to Sydney where the Bulls will look to inflict a second defeat on Aussie opponents on their road trip of Australasia.
Saturday's matches kick-off with the Highlanders hosting the Hurricanes in a big Kiwi derby in Dunedin.
Next up the Melbourne Rebels welcome the Crusaders to AAMI Park for their first ever Super Rugby encounter, and a big crowd is expected to see the likes of Dan Carter and Richie McCaw in action.
There is rugby on the menu and there is plenty to go around...
Friday, May 11
Blues v Lions
(Eden Park, Auckland - kick-off: 19.35; 07.35 GMT)
The Lions have never won in Auckland, but then again there are a lot of places where they have never won.
The Blues have won all of their previous five matches against the Lions and what they would give to extend that run by another victory to give the Eden Park faithful something to cheer about.
The match is the story of two sides fighting to avoid the wooden spoon and neither Luke Braid nor Josh Strauss have had much practice at giving the winning captains speech after the match.
Injuries have played a big part in the woes both the Blues and Lions, but those excuses are becoming tired and it seems Pat Lam has already paid the price for a failed season, with his job as head coached already being advertised for 2013.
The Lions' pack gave forwards coach Johan Ackermann something to smile about last weekend, scoring all three tries against the Chiefs and looking like a solid unit. Another strong showing could be key against the Blues, who are the only side in Super Rugby that might have a worse functioning line-out than the Lions this season.
Both teams have been forced to re-shuffle their backlines once again, with new midfield combinations in either side. The international experience of Benson Stanley, Ma'a Nonu and Piri Weepu should give the Blues the edge in the backs if they can cut out the handling errors.
Neither side has much left to lose in this year's campaign, so the ball should be thrown around making it an open match with plenty of tries on offer.
Recent results:
2011: Blues won 41-32, Johannesburg
2010: Blues won 56-14, Johannesburg
2009: Blues won 36-12, Auckland
2008: Blues won 55-10, Johannesburg
2007: Blues won 41-14, Auckland
rugby365.com Prediction: A close high-scoring affair with attacking rugby from two sides searching for a rare victory. Patriotism gives it to the Lions to end their misery and eke out a narrow victory.
Teams:
Blues: 15 Hadleigh Parkes, 14 David Raikuna, 13 Ma'a Nonu, 12 Michael Hobbs, 11 Benson Stanley, 10 Gareth Anscombe, 9 Piri Weepu, 8 Peter Saili, 7 Daniel Braid, 6 Luke Braid (captain), 5 Ali Williams, 4 Liaki Moli, 3 Charlie Faumuina, 2 Tom McCartney, 1 Tevita Mailau.
Replacements: 16 James Parsons, 17 Angus Ta'avao, 18 Filo Paulo, 19 Steven Luatua, 20 Alby Mathewson, 21 Lachie Munro, 22 Sherwin Stowers.
Lions: 15 Andries Coetzee, 14 Deon van Rensburg, 13 Lionel Mapoe, 12 Jaco Taute, 11 Michael Killian, 10 Elton Jantjies, 9 Ross Cronje, 8 Joshua Strauss (captain), 7 Grant Hattingh, 6 Derick Minnie, 5 Ruan Botha, 4 Franco van der Merwe, 3 Patric Cilliers, 2 Callie Visagie, 1 JC Janse van Rensburg.
Replacements: 16 Martin Bezuidenhout, 17 CJ van der Linde, 18 Cobus Grobbelaar, 19 Jaco Kriel, 20 Tian Meyer, 21 Ruan Combrinck, 22 James Kamana.
Referee: Angus Gardner (Australia)
Assistant referees: Bryce Lawrence (New Zealand), Sheldon Eden-Whaitiri (New Zealand)
TMO: Ben Skeen (New Zealand)
Waratahs v Bulls
(Allianz Stadium, Sydney - kick-off: 19.40; 09.40 GMT)
The Waratahs will still be wondering where it all went wrong in last weekend's thumping at the hands of the Brumbies, and will need to close the holes in defence before the stampeding Bulls turn up in Sydney.
The last time the 'Tahs beat the Bulls was way back in 2005 and they will have to wait even longer if they play like they did against the Brumbies.
Not all of the history is in the Bulls favour, as the Pretoria side have only once recorded two victories on Australian soil in the same season (in 2007) and have their own leaky defensive issues.
I haven't seen a Bulls defence so easily penetrated since Moby Dick was a sardine and if there is one thing little Sarel Pretorius loves, it's scoring tries against a disorganised defence.
Pretorius will find things tough with Francois Hougaard keeping a close eye on him, as the Bulls scrumhalf is by some distance the best No.9 in the competition this year.
The Bulls will miss Jacques Potgieter this week and Pierre Spies will need to get his hands dirty and lead from the front not only as a ball carriers, but making tackles and hitting rucks.
An area of concern for the Bulls could be in the scrums, as the 'Tahs are the only Australian team to boast a strong front row, although the loss of Tatafu Polota-Nau is a big setback for the home side. The Bulls are without Dean Greyling, which could give the 'Tahs the edge at scrum time.
The line-outs should be a different story, and that's where the Waratahs will really feel Polota-Nau's absence. Juandré Kruger has the opportunity to cause real havoc and dominate the aerial battle given Waratahs hooker John Ulugia's inexperience.
The midfield is an interesting prospect in the backline, where Francois Venter and Johann Sadie are re-united for the Bulls, while Adam Ashley-Cooper is back at inside centre, where he starred for the Wallabies in 2010.
Both sides will have been angered by their defensive frailties last weekend and will have spent a lot of time working on that during the week. Expect a lot of kicking and a battle for territory between the boots of Morne Steyn and Berrick Barnes, with Daniel Halangahu also turning up a flyhalf to give the ball a big hoof.
Recent results:
2011: Bulls won 23-17, Pretoria
2010: Bulls won 48-38, Pretoria
2009: Bulls won 20-6, Sydney
2008: Bulls won 16-13, Pretoria
2007: Bulls won 32-19, Sydney
rugby365.com Prediction: The kicking style of the two sides makes them very similar and they play very similar gameplans, but the difference is that the Bulls are simply better at it. Bulls to win by about six or another multiple of three.
Teams:
Waratahs: 15 Daniel Halangahu, 14 Tom Kingston, 13 Rob Horne, 12 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 11 Atieli Pakalani, 10 Berrick Barnes, 9 Sarel Pretorius, 8 Wycliff Palu, 7 Chris Alcock, 6 Rocky Elsom (captain), 5 Kane Douglas, 4 Dean Mumm, 3 Sekope Kepu, 2 John Ulugia, 1 Benn Robinson.
Replacements: 16 John Mann-Rea, 17 Jeremy Tilse, 18 Sitaleki Timani, 19 Lopeti Timani, 20 Dave Dennis, 21 Brendan McKibbin, 22 Tom Carter.
Bulls: 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Akona Ndungane, 13 Johann Sadie, 12 Francois Venter, 11 Bjorn Basson, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Francois Hougaard, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 CJ Stander, 6 Deon Stegmann, 5 Juandré Kruger, 4 Flip van der Merwe, 3 Werner Kruger, 2 Chiliboy Ralepelle, 1 Dawie Steyn.
Replacements: 16 Willie Wepener, 17 Rayno Gerber, 18 Wilhelm Steenkamp, 19 Arno Botha, 20 Jano Vermaak, 21 Louis Fouché, 22 JJ Engelbrecht.
Referee: Chris Pollock (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Ian Smith (Australia), Francisco Pastrana (Argentina)
TMO: George Ayoub (Australia)
Saturday, May 12
Highlanders v Hurricanes
(Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin - kick-off 19.35; 07.35 GMT)
The Highlanders have made the long trip back to the South Island from their South African tour, only to find a Hurricane approaching in the local weather forecast.
When the Otago side clashed with the 'Canes in Wellington earlier this year they secured a narrow 19-17 victory, and Saturday's encounter should be another close affair.
After a fantastic start to the season the Highlanders have started to slip off the pace somewhat, with the workload on key players such as Jamie MacKintosh and Adam Thomson starting to play a role.
The 'Canes backline is the most deadly on the counter-attack in the competition, with the back three of Andre Taylor, Cory Jane and Julian Savea combining brilliantly with any opportunity to run the ball.
The Highlanders will need to control things up front with their strong pack of forwards, while the 'Canes will launch their exciting backs given any room to move.
With the Forsyth Barr Stadium's fancy roof there is no danger of a wet slow game, so the conditions will suit the running game of the Hurricanes.
An interesting side note will be to keep an eye on the battle between scrumhalves TJ Perenara and Aaron Smith, who have both been outstanding this season and should fight for the All Blacks' No.9 jersey for years to come.
Recent results:
2012: Highlanders won 19-17, Wellington
2011: Highlanders won 13-6, Invercargill
2011: Highlanders won 14-9, Wellington
2010: Hurricanes won 33-31, Dunedin
2009: Hurricanes won 22-17, Wellington
rugby365.com Prediction: The Highlanders will dominate the possession stakes, but flashes of brilliance in open play will keep the 'Canes within striking distance. The Hurricanes backs will run wild in the closing stages and edge the team in front. 'Canes by five or less.
Teams:
Highlanders: 15 Ben Smith, 14 Siale Piutau, 13 Tamati Ellison, 12 Phil Burleigh, 11 Hosea Gear, 10 Mike Delany, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Nasi Manu, 7 Adam Thomson, 6 Nick Crosswell, 5 Jarrad Hoeata, 4 Josh Bekhuis, 3 Ma'afu Fia, 2 Andrew Hore (captain), 1 Chris King.
Replacements: 16 Jason Rutledge, 17 Bronson Murray, 18 Culum Retallick, 19 Tim Boys, 20 Jimmy Cowan, 21 Chris Noakes, 22 Kenny Lynn.
Hurricanes: 15 Andre Taylor, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith (captain), 12 Charlie Ngatai/Tim Bateman, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 TJ Perenara, 8 Victor Vito, 7 Karl Lowe, 6 Faifili Levave, 5 Jason Eaton, 4 Jeremy Thrush, 3 Ben May, 2 Dane Coles, 1 Reggie Goodes.
Replacements: 16 Motu Matu'u, 17 Jeffery Toomaga-Allen, 18 Brad Shields, 19 Jack Lam, 20 Chris Eaton, 21 Tusi Pisi/Daniel Kirkpatrick, 22 Tim Bateman/Alapati Leiua.
Referee: Glen Jackson (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Keith Brown (New Zealand), Matthew Muir (New Zealand)
TMO: Vinny Munro (New Zealand)
Melbourne Rebels v Crusaders
(AAMI Park, Melbourne - kick-off 19.40; 09.40 GMT)
While the Melbourne Rebels are still the new kids on the block in Super Rugby, the Crusaders are at the other end of the spectrum as the most successful side in the competition's history.
The two sides have never met before in the competition, although they did clash once in a pre-season friendly, but Saturday's match will be anything but friendly.
Melbourne is the traditional home of Aussie rules, and while the city is used to some rugby league action, union is still a fairly foreign concept for much of the population. However, Saturday's should draw a big crowd with the Crusaders in town for the first time, and an opportunity for the locals to see what a real rugby team looks like.
The Rebels players have spent the week talking about what an honour and a privilege it is to test yourself against a top side such as the 'Saders. While their flattery could be considered some kind of a Roberto Mancini style mind-game, it will ultimately get them nowhere against a hard-nosed Kiwi outfit such as the Crusaders.
The Crusaders will be wary of the Rebels, who gave the Bulls an almighty scare last weekend, but the Crusaders are unlikely to give Kurtley Beale any time and space to weave his magic.
The Rebels have shown that they shouldn't be underestimated, but the Crusaders are a tough nut to crack and they will go for the kill and keep putting points on the board if you don't meet them head on from the word go.
The return of Richie McCaw in a No.7 jersey is a big moment for all of New Zealand fans, after a couple of cameos off the bench in the last two weeks from the veteran flank.
Recent results:
No previous meetings
rugby365.com Prediction: The Rebels can be unpredictable, but the Crusaders are predictably good. Crusaders by at least 15.
Teams:
Rebels: 15 Julian Huxley, 14 Mark Gerrard, 13 Mitch Inman, 12 Lachlan Mitchell, 11 Cooper Vuna, 10 Kurtley Beale, 9 Nick Phipps, 8 Gareth Delve (captain), 7 Michael Lipman, 6 Tim Davidson, 5 Hugh Pyle, 4 Cadeyrn Neville, 3 Rodney Blake, 2 Ged Robinson, 1 Nic Henderson.
Replacements: 16 Adam Freier, 17 Jono Owen, 18 Alister Campbell, 19 Ryan Hodson, 20 Nick Stirzaker, 21 James Hilgendorf, 22 Stirling Mortlock.
Crusaders: 15 Tom Marshall, 14 Sean Maitland, 13 Robbie Fruean, 12 Dan Carter, 11 Zac Guildford, 10 Tom Taylor, 9 Willi Heinz, 8 Luke Whitelock, 7 Richie McCaw (captain), 6 George Whitelock, 5 Samuel Whitelock, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Corey Flynn, 1 Wyatt Crockett.
Replacements: 16 Ben Funnell, 17 Ben Franks, 18 Tom Donnelly/Ross Kennedy, 19 Kieran Read, 20 Andy Ellis, 21 Ryan Crotty, 22 Israel Dagg.
Referee: Jaco Peyper (South Africa)
Assistant referees: James Leckie (Australia), Will Houston (Australia)
TMO: Matt Goddard (Australia)
By Timmy Hancox