S18 PREVIEW: ROUND 13, PART ONE

The Crusaders could set the tone for what is going to be an intriguing weekend of Super Rugby.

The seven-time former champions, Crusaders, host the one-time champion Waratahs in Christchurch - the Crusaders coming off a disappointing loss and the Waratahs on a red-hot four-match winning streak.

It is the only Friday match, but will have a huge impact on the standings just a fortnight before the June break.

In the two early matches on Saturday the Chiefs - for so long tournament leaders till they were displaced by the Crusaders two weeks ago - are at home to the Rebels; while Reds and Sunwolves Brisbane in a match where battered pride is all that is at stake.

Friday, May 20:

The main question ahead of this game is: How will the loss of Kurtley Beale affect the Waratahs

Beale, who has been ruled out for the rest of the season with a knee injury, was the creative spark in an exciting Tahs backline.

However, they have another massive hurdle - a 12-year drought against the Crusaders in Christchurch - to overcome.

Waratahs assistant coach Chris Malone admitted losing a player of that calibre is tough.

"Losing Kurtley for us will be a be a huge loss," Malone said.

"He's been in spectacular form. He's been an integral part of our team and he's been a real leader for us on and off the field.

"We'll sorely miss him, but it gives the opportunity for someone else to cover that absence. It will have a galvanising effect."

 

The Crusaders lost their first match last week after an eight-game winning streak, while the Tahs have six wins (four on the trot at present) and four losses.

However, Malone feels they need to continue to get better, especially in this crucial fortnight before the June break.

"We need to continue to push towards an 80-minute performance," the Tahs assistant said.

"We've got the Crusaders this week, who have been the competition front runners all year.

"We head over to Christchurch and there's a huge opportunity, but also a huge task ahead of us to ensure we keep heading in the direction we want to head.

"We've just got to keep working hard on the training ground and keep getting better and better each week."

Recent results:

2015: Waratahs won 32-22, Sydney

2014: Waratahs won 33-32, Sydney (Final)

2013: Crusaders won 23-22, Christchurch

2012: Crusaders won 37-33, Sydney

2011: Crusaders won 33-18, Nelson

2010: Crusaders won 20-13, Christchurch

Prediction: The Waratahs have won their last two games against the Crusaders, a third straight win would be their longest ever streak against the Christchurch franchise. The Christchurch based side have won their last four against Australian opposition, with the last two games in that run both coming by margins of 25-plus points. The Waratahs have won two of their last three games in New Zealand and will be searching for back-to-back wins there for the first time since 2009 after a 29-24 win over the Hurricanes in Round 10. The Crusaders have scored nine tries in the third quarter of matches so far this season, a 10th would make them the first team to have scored 10-plus tries in each quarter of their matches so far this season. Richie Mo'unga beat seven defenders in the Crusaders' Round 12 loss, the most of any Crusaders flyhalf in Super Rugby since 2011. The Waratahs have a realistic chance of winning in the Crusaders' back yard, but I would not bet my house in that. We feel the Crusaders will sneak it by eight points.

Teams:

Crusaders: 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Johnny McNicholl, 13 Kieron Fonotia, 12 Ryan Crotty, 11 Jone Macilai, 10 Richie Mo'unga, 9 Andy Ellis, 8 Kieran Read (captain), 7 Matt Todd, 6 Jordan Taufua, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Joe Moody.

Replacements: 16 Ged Robinson, 17 Wyatt Crockett, 18 Mike Alaalatoa, 19 Scott Barrett, 20 Tim Boys, 21 Mitchell Drummond, 22 David Havili, 23 Marty McKenzie.

Waratahs: 15 Andrew Kellaway, 14 Reece Robinson, 13 Israel Folau, 12 David Horwitz, 11 Rob Horne, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Nick Phipps, 8 Jed Holloway, 7 Michael Hooper (captain), 6 Dean Mumm, 5 Will Skelton, 4 David Dennis, 3 Tom Robertson, 2 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1 Paddy Ryan.

Replacements: 16 Angus Ta'avao, 17 Hugh Roach, 18 Jeremy Tilse, 19 Sam Lousi, 20 Wycliff Palu, 21 Matt Lucas, 22 Matt Carraro, 23 Zac Guildford.

Referee: Jaco Peyper

Assistant referees: Jaco van Heerden, Kane McBride

TMO: Chris Wratt

Saturday, May 21:

The Reds return to Brisbane this weekend, following two games in New Zealand, and will be hoping to maintain their good home form this season - which has seen them win their last two at Suncorp Stadium.

Saturday's game will see the first meeting between the Reds and the Sunwolves, as the Queenslanders aim to finish on a high ahead of a Round 14 bye and the month-long June break.

The Sunwolves - with a win over the Jaguares and a draw with the Stormers - the Sunwolves now believe they can start knocking teams over more regularly.

Former Reds flank Ed Quirk is adamant they are not in Brisbane to "muck around".

"We're here to compete, not participate," Quirk told the couriermail.com.au.

Ironically, the Reds will have the name of one of Japan's most iconic stars, fullback Ayumu Goromaru, on their player roster.

However, Quirk insists they are not focussed on individuals, but rather how the Sunwolves can perform AS A TEAM.

"We are playing the Reds on Saturday, not Goromaru," Quirk said.

Previous results:

These teams have never met before.

Prediction: The Reds have won their last two games at home, the same amount of wins they accrued in their previous 12 home matches. The last time they won three on the spin in the same season was at the end of their 2013 campaign. The Sunwolves have conceded 171 points in their three games away from home so far in 2016, that's an average of 57 per game. The Reds have scored 38 more points than they've conceded in the third quarter of games so far this season, the fourth best difference of any team and nine more than the next best Australian team (Brumbies). Riaan Viljoen has gained 604 metres, the most of any Sunwolves player, and has scored two tries and gained 176 metres in the Sunwolves' last two games away from home. Rob Simmons has won 58 line-outs (including one steal) to date this season, the second most of any player in the competition and 15 more than the next best Australian-based player (Sam Carter - 43).  It is difficult to know which Sunwolves team will turn up. They have been bouncing between sublime and diabolical this season. The Reds at home may be just too much and should win by 10 to 15 points.

Teams:

Reds: 15 Ayumu Goromaru, 14 Chris Feauai-Sautia, 13 Campbell Magnay, 12 Anthony Fainga'a, 11 Eto Nabuli, 10 Jake McIntyre, 9 Nick Frisby, 8 Curtis Browning, 7 Liam Gill, 6 Hendrik Tui, 5 Rob Simmons, 4 Cadeyrn Neville, 3 Greg Holmes, 2 Andrew Ready, 1 James Slipper (captain).

Replacements: 16 Matt Mafi, 17 Sef Fa'agase, 18 Sam Talakai, 19 Ben Matwijow, 20 Michael Gunn, 21 James Tuttle, 22 Duncan Paia'aua, 23 Junior Laloifi.

Sunwolves: 15 Riaan Viljoen, 14 Akihito Yamada, 13 Derek Carpenter, 12 Harumichi Tatekawa (captain), 11 John Stewart, 10 Tusi Pisi, 9 Atsushi Hiwasa, 8 Ed Quirk, 7 Andrew Durutalo, 6 Liaki Moli, 5 Fa'atiga Lemalu, 4 Tim Bond, 3 Shinnosuke Kakinaga, 2 Takeshi Kizu, 1 Masataka Mikami.

Replacements: 16 Shota Horie, 17 Keita Inagaki, 18 Takuma Asahara, 19 Hitoshi Ono, 20 Taiyo Ando, 21 Yuki Yatomi, 22 Yu Tamura, 23 Mifiposeti Paea.

Referee: Will Houston

Assistant referees: Andrew Lees, Nic Berry

TMO: Damien Mitchelmore

The Rebels know they have a mountain to climb against a Chiefs team determined to bounce back - after suffering only their second defeat of the season, 13-26 to the Highlanders.

Despite having slipped to three defeats in their last four matches - having previously topped the Australian conference - the Rebels are adamant they are not out of the play-off race yet.

The Rebels, who sit seven points behind the conference leaders - the Waratahs - on the Australian Conference ladder, have just five games left to make up lost ground.

However, Rebels coach Tony McGahan said the team will not focus on the hypothetical scenarios.

"We know exactly where we stand and what we've got to do and that's where we'll go forward this week," McGahan said in an interview on the Rebels website.

"If you get too caught up on the opposition and what they've got to do, who they've got to play, the byes they've got, and who's in and who's out, it becomes messy.

"We're keeping things pretty simple so we just worry about ourselves, what we've got control over and make sure we play well.

"We've got a tough assignment with the Chiefs away in Hamilton on Saturday."

Despite the Chiefs holding the head to head advantage, the Rebels take confidence from the fact that little has separated the two sides in their previous meetings.

"They're a fantastic side and have been leading the competition pretty much since day one, they're pretty hard to beat in New Zealand but we've done well against them the last two years and we look forward to mixing it up on Saturday," McGahan said.

Previous results:

2015: Rebels won 16-15, Melbourne

2014: Chiefs won 22-16. Hamilton

2013: Chiefs won 39-33, Melbourne

2011: Chiefs won 38-10, Hamilton

Prediction: The Chiefs have won three of their four games against the Rebels, though the Melbourne team snapped a three-game losing streak with a win in the last fixture between these franchises. Defeat to the Highlanders in Round 11 snapped a seven game winning streak for the Chiefs; they've not lost consecutive home games in the same season since 2011. The Chiefs have scored three tries on the back of a line-out steal, the equal most of any team in the competition, while the Rebels have conceded the joint most tries (three) after having their line-out stolen. The Rebels have conceded the second fewest points of any team in the final quarter of matches this season (32), just one point more than the Waratahs. Sefanaia Naivalua has made an average game of 9.7 metres from 26 carries so far this season, the most of any Australian-based player and the third most overall (minimum 10 carries). The Chiefs have too much class to be bogged down by their recent loss and should win by about 15 points.

Teams:

Chiefs: 15 Damian McKenzie, 14 Toni Pulu, 13 Seta Tamanivalu, 12 Anton Lienert-Brown, 11 James Lowe, 10 Aaron Cruden (co-captain), 9 Brad Weber, 8 Michael Leitch, 7 Sam Cane (co-captain), 6 Taleni Seu, 5 Brodie Retallick, 4 Dominic Bird, 3 Hiroshi Yamashita, 2 Nathan Harris, 1 Mitchell Graham.

Replacements: 16 Hika Elliot, 17 Kane Hames, 18 Siegfried Fisi'ihoi, 19 Michael Allardice, 20 Tom Sanders, 21 Kayne Hammington, 22 Andrew Horrell, 23 Sam Vaka.

Rebels: 15 Mike Harris, 14 Sefa Naivalu, 13 Mitch Inman, 12 Reece Hodge, 11 Tom English, 10 Jack Debreczeni, 9 Nic Stirzaker (captain), 8 Adam Thomson, 7 Sean McMahon, 6 Colby Fainga'a, 5 Lopeti Timani , 4 Sam Jeffries, 3 Jamie Hagan, 2 James Hanson, 1 Toby Smith.

Replacements: 16 Siliva Siliva , 17 Cruze Ah Nau, 18 Tim Metcher, 19 Culum Retallick, 20 Jordy Reid, 21 Ben Meehan, 22 Jonah Placid, 23 Kotaro Matsushima.

Referee: Angus Gardiner

Assistant referees: Brendon Pickerill, Brett Johnson

TMO: Ben Skeen

Compiled by Jan de Koning

@King365ed

@rugby365com

* Statistical information provided by Opta Sports