Super Rugby AU - Predictions and Teams: Round One

TRIALS FOR RENNIE: Super Rugby resumes in Australia this week after a near four-month coronavirus hibernation with new Wallabies coach Dave Rennie watching closely as he ponders his first line-up.

Queensland Reds will kick off the domestic 10-round season against the Waratahs in Brisbane Friday, before the Brumbies face the Melbourne Rebels in Canberra a day later.

Perth's Western Force, who were axed from Super Rugby at the end of 2017, will make their return to top-flight competition against the Waratahs in Sydney in Round Two.

Officially named Super Rugby AU, the Australian domestic tournament is helping to fill the gap left when the 15-team Southern Hemisphere franchise competition was halted after seven rounds because of the pandemic in mid-March.

It mirrors New Zealand's Super Rugby Aotearoa which began last month, and will similarly trial new rules including goal-line dropouts and a 10-minute golden point period if matches are tied.

Former Glasgow coach Rennie will be keeping an eye on proceedings from home in his native New Zealand, where he has been isolating.

With a host of Wallabies calling it quits after last year's World Cup, the door is open leading into what is expected to be a four-match Bledisloe Cup series against the All Blacks later in the year.

"Obviously, the next three months is a great opportunity for players," Rennie said, adding that he currently had around 30 players in his sights.

"But there's still opportunities for guys to jump in from outside that group. So that's what the next three months is about, really."

'Haven't missed a beat'

Getting the competition started has not been easy.

Some state borders remain closed, with Western Force basing themselves in New South Wales while the Rebels dashed to Canberra early after a spike of coronavirus cases in Melbourne last week.

The home Rebels fixture on July 10 has already been moved to New South Wales and the team could be forced to play games in neutral venues if the outbreak persists.

On the plus side, Rugby Australia managed to renegotiate a broadcast deal to show all matches live, but pay talks with players remain unresolved.

The Alan Alaalatoa-led Brumbies start as favourites. Their team, including flying centre Tevita Kuridrani and prolific try-scoring hooker Folau Fainga'a, were the pacesetters before Super Rugby was suspended in March.

They won five out of six to top the Australian conference ahead of their Saturday opponents, the Rebels, who will look towards last season's Australian player of the year, powerhouse wing Marika Koroibete, and captain Dane Haylett-Petty among a dynamic backs line-up.

The Waratahs managed just one win before the interruption and they will restart without their France-bound veteran playmaker Kurtley Beale.

His absence will place more responsibility on the senior shoulders of tireless flanker Michael Hooper, Australia's World Cup captain last year, and second row forward Rob Simmons who has taken over the Waratahs' armband.

The Reds have were hit hard during the shutdown by the departures of Izack Rodda, Harry Hockings and Isaac Lucas, who left after refusing to accept the pay cut, leaving coach Brad Thorn with an inexperienced side brimming with young potential but with plenty to prove.

Western Force have a bye on opening weekend, but hooker Heath Tessmann said his team were hungry to make an impact after nearly three years away from Super Rugby.

"We're not putting our hand up to be part of this competition just to play a bit of rugby because we're bored," he said.

Super Rugby AU will culminate in a two-week finals series starting on September 12.

This week's predictions

Friday, July 3

Reds v Waratahs

(Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane - Kick-off: 19.05 (09.06 GMT)

The Waratahs have won their last 11 Super Rugby games on the bounce against the Reds; only one team in Super Rugby history has a longer winning streak against another (12 – Brumbies against Reds from 2000 to 2010).

The Reds have lost 21 of their last 26 Super Rugby games against fellow Australian opposition (W5), including their last five on the bounce.

The Waratahs have lost their last four Super Rugby games away from home by an average margin of 26 points per game.

The Reds scored a competition high 32 tries throughout the 2020 Super Rugby campaign, more than twice as many as the Waratahs (15).

Robbie Abel (Waratahs) made 47 successful line-out throws from 50 attempts during the 2020 Super Rugby season; his 94 percent success rate was the highest of any

hooker to make at least 50 throws during the campaign.

Prediction:

@rugby365com: Reds by 10 points.

Teams:

Queensland Reds: 15 Bryce Hegarty, 14 Jock Campbell, 13 Hunter Paisami, 12 Hamish Stewart, 11 Filipo Daugunu, 10 James O'Connor, 9 Tate McDermott, 8 Harry Wilson, 7 Fraser McReight, 6 Liam Wright, 5 Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, 4 Angus Blyth, 3 Taniela Tupou, 2 Brandon Paenga-Amosa, 1 Harry Hoopert.

Replacements: 16 Alex Mafi, 17 JP Smith, 18 Josh Nasser, 19 Tuaina Taii Tualima, 20 Angus Scott Young, 21 Scott Malolua, 22 Chris Feauai-Sautia, 23 Josh Flook.

Waratahs: 15 Jack Maddocks, 14 James Ramm, 13 Alex Newsome, 12 Joey Walton, 11 Mark Nawaqanitawase, 10 Will Harrison, 9 Mitch Short, 8 Will Harris, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Lachlan Swinton, 5 Rob Simmons (captain), 4 Ned Hanigan, 3 Harry Johnson-Holmes, 2 Robbie Abel, 1 Angus Bell.

Replacements: 16 Tom Horton, 17 Tetera Faulkner, 18 Tiaan Tauakipulu, 19 Tom Staniforth, 20 Jack Dempsey, 21 Michael McDonald, 22 Ben Donaldson, 23 Tepai Moeroa.

Referee: Nic Berry

Assistant referees: Damon Murphy, Jordan Way

TMO: Ian Smith

Saturday, July 4

Brumbies v Melbourne Rebels

(GIO Stadium, Canberra - Kick-off: 19.15 (09.15 GMT)

The Brumbies picked up a 39-26 win in their most recent Super Rugby clash with the Rebels, snapping a four-game losing streak against them; they’ll now be looking for back-to-back wins against the Melbourne club for the first time since 2015.

Each of the Rebels’ last 13 Super Rugby games have been won by the team holding the lead at half-time on the day; the Melbourne side have managed three wins in their last four fixtures, including their last two on the bounce.

The Brumbies have won their last five Super Rugby games against fellow Australian opposition; more than they had won in their 13 such fixtures prior (W4, L9).

The Brumbies scored (9) seven more tries than they conceded (2) throughout the opening 20 minutes of games during the 2020 Super Rugby season, the highest positive disparity of any team in the competition.

Andrew Kellaway (Rebels) has crossed for a brace of tries in three of his last four Super Rugby games, including each of his last two; he’s failed to score a try only twice in his last six games in the competition, although one of those two games came against the Brumbies.

Prediction:

@rugby365com: Brumbies by 15 points

Teams:

Brumbies: 15 Mack Hansen, 14 Andy Muirhead, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Irae Simone, 11 Tom Wright, 10 Noah Lolesio, 9 Joe Powell, 8 Pete Samu, 7 Tom Cusack, 6 Rob Valetini, 5 Murray Douglas, 4 Darcy Swain, 3 Allan Alaalatoa (captain), 2 Folau Fainga’a, 1 James Slipper.

Replacements: 16 Connal McInerney, 17 Scott Sio, 18 Tom Ross, 19 Lachlan McCaffrey, 20 Will Miller, 21 Issak Fines, 22 Bayley Kuenzle, 23 Len Ikitau.

Rebels: 15 Dane Haylett-Petty (captain), 14 Andrew Kellaway, 13 Reece Hodge, 12 Billy Meakes, 11 Marika Koroibete, 10 Matt To’omua, 9 Ryan Louwrens, 8 Michael Wells, 7 Richard Hardwick, 6 Josh Kemeny, 5 Michael Stolberg, 4 Matt Philip, 3 Pone Fa’amausili, 2 Jordan Uelese, 1 Matt Gibbon.

Replacements: 16 Efitusi Maafu, 17 Cameron Orr, 18 Jermaine Ainsley, 19 Trevor Hosea, 20 Esei Haangana, 21 Rob Leota, 22 Frank Lomani, 23 Andrew Deegan.

Referee: Angus Gardner

Assistant referees: Amy Perrett, Reuben Keane

TMO: James Leckie

Additional source: AFP

* Stats provided by Opta Sports