Super Rugby AU - Predictions and Teams: Round Three

RETURN OF A STALWART: When Greg Holmes left the Queensland Reds in 2015, the prop never envisaged he'd have to face a team he'd formed a lifelong bond with.

Holmes was a part of the Reds for a decade, playing over 140 games for the franchise and winning the 2011 Super Rugby championship.

The Wallaby called time on his Reds career to head to England and assumed that was the last time he'd play at Suncorp Stadium.

Instead, the 37-year-old will be lining up on the opposition team this Friday for the Western Force in the Super Rugby AU competition.

Holmes admits his emotions have been a bit conflicted in the build-up to the match.

"I never envisioned playing against the Reds. That was my team for life," Holmes said.

"I spent so long there but it'd be great to knock up a win against them.

"It's almost sort of reinvigorated me a little bit. It's a new challenge. It's just something to look forward to, it's driving me through the week playing against the Reds.

"I'm actually pretty excited for it."

Holmes has kept an eye on the Reds since his departure and likes the look of Brad Thorn's current team, which sits top of the competition after two rounds.

In contrast, the Force were disappointed to lose 14-23 in their first match back in Super Rugby against the Waratahs.

Holmes believes his new team will be better for the run against the Waratahs.

"Coming in late was a little bit harder because we've missed out on the pre-season or the build-up stuff so we've sort of had to up speed pretty quickly," Holmes said.

"The amount of physicality and the effort the guys are putting in, it's second to none from what I've seen over my career. We've just got to get the execution right.

"We're going to be a lot better for that run. I think this weekend we can get out there and show that."

This week's predictions

Friday, July 17

Reds v Western Force

(Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane - Kick-off: 19.05 (09.05 GMT)

The Force have won seven of their last 10 Super Rugby games against the Reds, including their last three on the bounce (D1, L2); their last meeting (Force 40-26 Reds in Rd 14, 2017) featured 66 total points – the most in the history of this fixture.

The Reds have won four of their six previous fixtures the game after having been held to a draw in Super Rugby; although, the last time they had to back up from a draw resulted in defeat (Round Five, 2016 – 15-13 v Waratahs).

The last time the Force opened a Super Rugby campaign with back-to-back defeats was in 2014 when they lost to the Waratahs (Round Two) and Brumbies (Round Three).

The Force finished their last Super Rugby encounter with the Reds with a 100 success rate at both the lineout and the scrum, one of just seven times they have managed to do so in the last decade of Super Rugby.

Liam Wright (Reds) has attended 49 effective rucks so far in Super Rugby AU, more than any other player in the competition; he’s been the first or second hitter in 51 of the 64 rucks he’s attended so far this tournament.

Prediction:

@rugby365com: Reds by 14 points

Teams:

Queensland: 15 Jock Campbell, 14 Chris Feauai-Sautia, 13 Hunter Paisaimi, 12 Hamish Stewart, 11 Filipo Daugunu, 10 James O'Connor, 9 Tate McDermott, 8 Harry Wilson, 7 Fraser McReight, 6 Liam Wright, 5 Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, 4 Angus Scott-Young, 3 Taniela Tupou, 2 Brandon Paenga-Amosa, 1 Harry Hoopert.

Replacements: 16 Alex Mafi, 17 Dane Zander, 18 Jack Straker, 19 Ryan Smith, 20 Tuaina Taii Tualima, 21 Scott Malolua, 22 Josh Flook, 23 Bryce Hegarty.

Western Force: 15 Jack McGregor, 14 Byron Ralston, 13 Marcel Brache, 12 Nick Jooste, 11 Brad Lacey, 10 Jono Lance, 9 Ian Prior (captain), 8 Brynard Stander, 7 Tevin Ferris, 6 Henry Stowers, 5 Fergus Lee-Warner, 4 Jeremy Thrush, 3 Kieran Longbottom, 2 Feleti Kaitu'u, 1 Angus Wagner.

Replacements: 16 Andrew Ready, 17 Chris Heiberg, 18 Greg Holmes, 19 Ollie Atkins, 20 Ollie Callen, 21 Jacob Abel, 22 Henry Taefu, 23 Kyle Godwin.

Referee: Nic Berry

Assistant referees: Damon Murphy, Jordan Way

TMO: Brett Cronan

Saturday, July 18

Waratahs v Brumbies

(ANZ Stadium, Sydney - Kick-off: 19.15 (09.15 GMT)

The Brumbies have won seven of their last eight Super Rugby games against the Waratahs, including their last four on the bounce; neither side has managed five consecutive wins in the history of this fixture.

The Waratahs have won six of their last eight Australian derbies on home turf in Super Rugby; however, both of their two defeats in that stretch have been against the Brumbies.

The Brumbies have won their last four regular-season away games in Super Rugby in succession; the last time they won more in succession was a seven-game stretch across the 2012 and 2013 campaigns.

The Waratahs have made a competition-high 7.5 offloads per game in Super Rugby AU, while the Brumbies made just a single offload from their sole performance in the competition thus far.

Jack Maddocks (Waratahs) has scored six tries in his five Super Rugby games against the Brumbies, including four tries in his last three.

Prediction:

@rugby365com: Brumbies by seven points

Teams:

Waratahs: 15 Jack Maddocks, 14 James Ramm, 13 Joey Walton, 12 Karmichael Hunt, 11 Alex Newsome, 10 Will Harrison, 9 Mitch Short, 8 Jack Dempsey, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Lachlan Swinton, 5 Rob Simmons (captain), 4 Ned Hanigan, 3 Harry Johnson-Holmes, 2 Tom Horton, 1 Tom Robertson.

Replacements: 16 Robbie Abel, 17 Tetera Faulkner, 18 Angus Bell, 19 Tom Staniforth, 20 Will Harris, 21 Michael McDonald, 22 Mark Nawaqanitawase, 23 Ben Donaldson.

Brumbies: 15 Tom Banks, 14 Andy Muirhead, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Irae Simone, 11 Tom Wright, 10 Noah Lolesio, 9 Joe Powell, 8 Pete Samu, 7 Tom Cusack, 6 Rob Valetini, 5 Murray Douglas, 4 Darcy Swain, 3 Allan Alaalatoa (captain), 2 Folau Fainga'a, 1 James Slipper.

Replacements: 16 Connal McInerney, 17 Scott Sio, 18 Tom Ross, 19 Lachlan McCaffrey, 20 Will Miller, 21 Issak Fines, 22 Bayley Kuenzle, 23 Mack Hansen.

Referee: Angus Gardner

Assistant referees: Amy Perrett, Reuben Keane

TMO: James Leckie

Additional sources: AAP & SANZAAR