Super Rugby AU, Round four - Teams and Predictions
NO BAD BLOOD: Halfway through the Super Rugby AU season and both Round 4 fixtures are carrying plenty of weight as all eyes will be on Perth and Canberra this weekend.
In Friday’s opening clash, the Western Force will play host to the Melbourne Rebels at HBF Park.
The Force are flying high after breaking a nine-game losing streak in Super Rugby AU and should enter as favourites following their 20-17 upset over the winless Waratahs last week.
The fixture has been labelled as the grudge match however heading into the fixtures Stand-in Western Force skipper Brynard Stander insisted his team no longer hold a grudge against the Melbourne Rebels.
The Rebels and Force were pitted in a battle for survival in 2017 when Rugby Australia announced they would cull a side at the end of the season.
The Force ended up getting the boot, before a remarkable series of events saw them reinstated into Super ranks last year.
Some Force fans are still dirty about the whole experience, especially after watching then-coach Dave Wessels and a host of star players defect to the Rebels.
But Stander, who has been with the Force since 2014, says any grudge match talk is now in the past with the team more intent on turning HBF Park into a fortress.
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"Being a grudge match is in the past. It's a new era at the Western Force," Stander said.
"Of course there's going to be a bit of feeling. There's a bit of feeling in every single game. But us being back at home makes it extra special.
"We spoke about creating a fortress here in Perth and tomorrow night is a good opportunity to do that."
The Rebels pipped the Force in two thrillers last year with the first fixture going to extra time and the rematch being decided in the final minute.
It continued the remarkable rivalry between the sides where 14 of the 15 contests have been decided by nine points or less.
Eleven of those were decided by five points or less.
Although the Rebels are winless after two games, they came close to beating both the Reds and the Brumbies.
"They're very gritty, they're tenacious. They're a good side," Force coach Tim Sampson said.
"They've pushed last year's grand finalists, so it's going to be a big challenge for us."
Wallabies lock Sitaleki Timani will make his first appearance for the Force since 2008 after being named on the bench.
Sampson said star inside centre Kyle Godwin, who suffered a fractured ankle on the eve of the season, was still in a moon boot and at least several weeks away from returning.
The Grand final rematch
If there’s one game not to be miss in Super Rugby AU 2021, it’s Saturday’s grand final rematch between the Brumbies and Reds.
The reigning champion Brumbies are 3-0 after last week’s great escape against the Rebels while 2020 runner-ups Reds are 2-0 after home wins over the Waratahs and Rebels.
Both sides have delivered similar performances across the opening three rounds and while Queensland are coming off the bye, Brumbies must be favourites given their strong home record.
The Brumbies will be without skipper Allan Alaalatoa (suspension) and fellow front row Connal McInerney (injury) but welcome back Test hooker Folau Fainga’a among a swathe of pack changes that sees veteran flanker Tom Cusack take the interim captaincy.
Meanwhile, Reds coach Brad Thorn has pulled centre, Hamish Stewart, from the match-day 23 entirely after starting both earlier games with Hunter Paisami and Jordan Petaia set to combine in the midfield.
League convert Suliasi Vunivalu has also been named to make his starting debut on the wing for Queensland.
Thorn revealed that Stewart was dropped from a star-studded backline to face the Brumbies because of a discipline issue.
The No.12 had finally found his place in the Reds' set-up last season after being tried at No.10 and fullback, defending strongly and complementing James O'Connor with his hard-edged, versatile skill set.
Despite that, Stewart faced intense competition for a spot with the arrival of winger Suliasi Vunivalu from the NRL in 2021, who will start for the first time on Saturday in a move that will shift Jordan Petaia into the centres at Stewart's expense.
But Stewart did himself no favours, understood to have reported for a rehabilitation session after their win over the Rebels a fortnight ago in an unfit state and displayed a general tardiness at training.
Junior Wallabies centre Josh Flook has been added to the bench with Stewart set to play club rugby this weekend.
"It was around a discipline issue internally about our standards, but it's allowed us to see that Wallaby combination together and a guy we rate very highly, Josh Flook, to be named," Thorn explained.
"Hamish we rate highly [but] never open the door at this level for someone else, that'd be my thoughts.
"Hamish is a great guy, he'll be back involved but you don't want to give guys an opportunity - that's competitive rugby."
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Round four teams and predictions!
Friday, March 12
Western Force v Melbourne Rebels
(HBF Park, Perth - Kick-off: 17.45; 20.45 AEDT; 09.45 GMT)
All but one of the previous 15 Super Rugby games between the Western Force and Rebels have been decided by a single-digit margin on the day, with the Melbourne side picking up 11 wins in that period.
Western Force have lost all five of their home games in Super Rugby AU and scored an average of just nine points per game in that stretch.
The Rebels have failed to score a try in their last two Super Rugby AU games; the last time any team went longer without scoring a try in Super Rugby was a three-game stretch for the Sharks in April 2013.
Western Force’s Toni Pulu and Rebels’ Michael Wells have each crossed the gainline on nine of their 11 gainline carries this Super Rugby AU campaign, the joint-highest rate (82%) of any player to make at least 10 gainline carries this season.
Fergus Lee-Warner (Western Force) has made a competition - high 18 carries per game this Super Rugby AU season and has also made 14.5 tackles per game, making him one of only two players (Fraser McReight) to have made 10+ carries and 10+ tackles per game this season.
Head to head
Prediction
@rugby365com: Western Force by eight points
Western Force: 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Byron Ralston, 13 Tevita Kuridrani. 12 Richard Kahui, 11 Marcel Brache, 10 Jake McIntyre, 9 Tomas Cubelli, 8 Brynard Stander (captain), 7 Kane Koteka, 6 Fergus Lee-Warner, 5 Ryan McCauley, 4 Jeremy Thrush, 3 Santiago Medrano, 2 Feleti Kaitu’u, 1 Tom Robertson.
Replacements: 16 Jack Winchester, 17 Angus Wagner, 18 Greg Holmes, 19 Sitaleki Timani, 20 Tomas Lezana, 21 Ian Prior, 22 Henry Taefu, 23 Jack McGregor.
Melbourne Rebels: 15 Tom Pincus, 14 Lachlan Anderson, 13 Stacey Ili, 12 Reece Hodge, 11 Marika Koroibete, 10 Matt To’omua (captain), 9 Joe Powell, 8 Michael Wells, 7 Richard Hardwick, 6 Joshua Kemeny, 5 Trevor Hosea, 4 Ross Haylett-Petty, 3 Pone Faamausili, 2 James Hanson, 1 Cabous Eloff.
Replacements: 16 Ed Craig, 17 Isaac Aedo Kailea, 18 Lucio Sordoni, 19 Steve Cummins, 20 Robert Leota, 21 Brad Wilkin/Tom Nowlan, 22 James Tuttle, 23 Frank Lomani/Carter Gordon.
Referee: Graham Cooper
Assistant referees: Reuben Keane, Brett Cronan
TMO: Kyle Burnett
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Saturday, March 13
Brumbies v Queensland Reds
(GIO Stadium, Canberra - Kick-off: 19.45; 18.45 AEST; 08.45 GMT)
The Brumbies have won four of their last five Super Rugby games against the Reds including their most recent meeting in the 2020 Super Rugby AU final (28-23).
The Reds have started the 2021 Super Rugby AU campaign with two consecutive victories; a third straight win in this match would equal their best winning run to begin a Super Rugby season (W3 in 1999 and 2012).
No team has made more (7) or conceded fewer (2) interceptions in Super Rugby AU since the beginning of the 2020 campaign than the Queensland Reds.
The Brumbies have scored four tries from mauls in the 2021 Super Rugby AU campaign, with no other team having scored more than one; the Brumbies have scored 10 maul tries since the competition began in 2020 - more than all other teams combined.
Alex Mafi has scored three tries in his last two Super Rugby games and in Round 2 of this season became the first Queensland Reds hooker to score two tries in a game since Brandon Paenga-Amosa bagged a brace against the Sunwolves in Round 5, 2019.
Head to head
Prediction
@rugby365com: Brumbies by five points
Brumbies: 15 Tom Banks, 14 Andy Muirhead, 13 Len Ikitau, 12 Irae Simone, 11 Mack Hansen, 10 Noah Lolesio, 9 Nic White, 8 Pete Samu, 7 Tom Cusack (captain), 6 Rob Valetini, 5 Cadeyrn Neville, 4 Darcy Swain, 3 Tom Ross, 2 Folau Fainga’a, 1 Scott Sio.
Replacements: 16 Lachlan Lonergan, 17 Harry Lloyd, 18 Archer Holz, 19 Nick Frost, 20 Jahrome Brown, 21 Ryan Lonergan, 22 Reesjan Pasitoa, 23 Issak Fines-Leleiwasa.
Reds: 15 Jock Campbell, 14 Suliasi Vunivalu, 13 Jordan Petaia, 12 Hunter Paisami, 11 Filipo Daugunu, 10 James O’Connor (captain), 9 Tate McDermott, 8 Harry Wilson, 7 Fraser McReight, 6 Angus Scott-Young, 5 Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, 4 Angus Blyth, 3 Taniela Tupou, 2 Alex Mafi, 1 Dane Zander.
Replacements: 16 Brandon Paenga-Amosa, 17 Harry Hoopert, 18 Zane Nonggorr, 19 Ryan Smith, 20 Seru Uru, 21 Moses Sorovi, 22 Bryce Hegarty, 23 Josh Flook.
Referee: Nic Berry
Assistant referees: Jordan Way, Amy Perrett
TMO: James Leckie
Bye: Waratahs
Source: AAP & SuperRugby
* Statistical information provided by Stats Perform