Super Rugby Pacific, Round Five - Teams and Predictions
MOVERS AND SHAKERS: Teams are starting to make their move in Super Rugby Pacific with Round Five set to bring plenty of action despite a raft of schedule changes
The action kicks off on Friday with a re-match of last year’s Super Rugby AU Final when the Brumbies host the Reds at GIO Stadium. Both teams are the only sides to remain unbeaten in the competition, with the hosts hungry to avenge several last-minute defeats in 2021
Saturday is a triple-header of action, starting with newcomers Fijian Drua welcoming the Western Force to Leichhardt Oval. The Force are coming off two disappointing losses to the Reds and Waratahs whilst Mick Byrne's men are gaining in confidence every week and are hunting for their second victory.
Also on Saturday, the Chiefs will now play Moana Pasifika at Mt Smart Stadium. The original schedule had Moana slated to play the Highlanders whilst the Chiefs were set to travel to Wellington to face the Hurricanes. However, COVID cases throughout several franchises forced the change, allowing the newcomers to play their second game.
The action rounds out at the historic SCG as the red-hot Waratahs take on the Melbourne Rebels. The Waratahs find themselves in the top four after experiencing an incredible revival under Darren Coleman, whilst the Rebels are struggling in 11th place.
'He's their powerhouse'
Still stinging after being shifted to the wrong side of Australian rugby's newest rivalry, Allan Alaalatoa has singled out rival prop Taniela Tupou as the Brumbies prepare to face Queensland Reds.
The Wallabies teammates split minutes last season with success but will go head-to-head for Super Rugby Pacific's only two remaining unbeaten sides in Canberra.
The Brumbies beat the Reds to claim domestic honours in 2020 but the Reds reversed that result in an after-the-siren win in front of a delirious Suncorp Stadium crowd last season.
That was one of three tense games between the sides in 2021 that have forged a genuine rivalry between the teams that feature players competing for Test caps.
"It's been built over the last couple of years ... we've got some of the best players going head to head so I think that's awesome," Brumbies captain Alaalatoa said.
"When you get the chance to think about it it still hurts a little bit [the Super Rugby AU final loss].
"We've got to nail our detail, channel that emotion and make sure we're 100 percent clear on what we're going to do."
With Tate McDermott among a host of key men missing due to injury and Liam Wright back via the bench from his own shoulder dramas, Alaalatoa expects Tupou to step up for the Reds.
"He's their powerhouse; someone that when he wants to turn it on, can really put pressure on," he said.
"They'll probably look to Nella to drive them so we need to do everything we can to stop him and guys like Harry Wilson and Jordy Petaia, just to name a few."
Petaia has plenty to prove too after retaining his spot at fullback following last week's experimental debut in the No.15 went well.
He'll be tested by rival fullback and Wallabies front-runner Tom Banks, while the kicking game of halves Nic White and Noah Lolesio will also keep Petaia busy.
Round Five teams and predictions below!
Due to effects of COVID-19 in New Zealand several matches have been postponed:
POSTPONED: Highlanders v Moana Pasifika @ Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin
POSTPONED: Hurricanes v Chiefs @ Wellington Regional Stadium, Wellington
POSTPONED: Crusaders v Blues @ Christchurch Stadium, Christchurch
Friday, March 18:
Brumbies v Reds
(Canberra Stadium, Canberra - Kick-off: 19.45; 18.45 AEST; 08.45 GMT)
The Queensland Reds have won four of their last five Super Rugby matches against the Brumbies (L1), including their last three in succession despite trailing at half-time on the day in each of those three games; it’s the Reds’ longest winning run against the Brumbies in the history of the competition.
The Queensland Reds will be aiming for back-to-back away victories against the Brumbies for just the second time in the history of Super Rugby (May 2012), following their 40-38 win in their most recent such meeting (Round Four, 2021 Super Rugby AU).
The Brumbies have won each of their four games in Super Rugby Pacific; they will be aiming to begin a Super Rugby season with five straight victories for just the second time in the history of the competition, having won five in succession to start the 2002 campaign.
The Queensland Reds have won each of their four games in Super Rugby Pacific; they will be aiming to begin a Super Rugby season with five consecutive wins for the second time after opening the 2021 Super Rugby AU campaign with seven straight wins.
The Brumbies (14) and Queensland Reds (8) have scored more tries starting possession from a lineout than any other teams this Super Rugby Pacific season.
The Brumbies (16) and Queensland Reds (14) have retained possession on the joint-most and third-most kicks in play respectively of any other teams in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific campaign (also Crusaders – 16).
Queensland Reds players have made a combined three try assists via kicks in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season, as many as the rest of the competition combined (Brumbies – 1, Hurricanes – 1, Western Force – 1).
Prediction
@rugby365com: Brumbies by four points.
Teams:
Brumbies: 15 Tom Banks, 14 Tom Wright, 13 Len Ikitau, 12 Irae Simone, 11 Andy Muirhead, 10 Noah Lolesio, 9 Nic White, 8 Pete Samu, 7 Jahrome Brown, 6 Rob Valetini, 5 Nick Frost, 4 Darcy Swain, 3 Allan Alaalatoa (captain), 2 Folau Fainga'a, 1 James Slipper.
Replacements: 16 Connal McInerney, 17 Scott Sio, 18 Sefo Kautai, 19 Tom Hooper, 20 Luke Reimer, 21 Ryan Lonergan, 22 Chris Feauai-Sautia, 23 Jesse Mogg.
Reds: 15 Jordan Petaia, 14 Jock Campbell, 13 Hunter Paisami, 12 Hamish Stewart, 11 Josh Flook, 10 James O'Connor, 9 Kalani Thomas, 8 Harry Wilson, 7 Fraser McReight (captain), 6 Seru Uru, 5 Angus Blyth, 4 Ryan Smith, 3 Taniela Tupou, 2 Josh Nasser, 1 Dane Zander.
Replacements: 16 Matt Faessler, 17 Harry Hoopert, 18 Feao Fotuaika, 19 Connor Vest, 20 Liam Wright, 21 Spencer Jeans, 22 Lawson Creighton, 23 Isaac Henry.
Referee: Damon Murphy
Assistant referees: Graham Cooper, Reuben Keane
TMO: Brett Cronan
Saturday, March 19:
Fijian Drua v Western Force
(Leichhardt Stadium, Sydney - Kick-off: 14.35; 15.35 FJT; 11.35 AWST; 03.35 GMT)
The Fijian Drua will meet the Western Force in Super Rugby for the first time; the Force have won each of their last two matches in the competition when facing a side for the first time, after winning only one of all their 16 such fixtures prior (D2, L13).
This is set to be the Fijian Drua’s second Super Rugby match in New South Wales; they lost to the Waratahs in their last fixture in the state (40-10, Round One – 2022 Super Rugby Pacific).
The Western Force have won only one of their last 11 Super Rugby matches against teams from outside Australia (L10), a 16-6 win against the Jaguares (Round 12, 2017); they have lost seven consecutive such fixtures since then.
The Western Force have won only one of their last seven Super Rugby matches in New South Wales (L6); although, six of the seven games in that span have been decided by a single figure margin on the day.
The Fijian Drua have made 111 tackles per game in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season, the joint-fewest of any team in the competition (also the Waratahs and Chiefs).
The Western Force have missed just 12 tackles per game in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season, the fewest of any team in the competition and eight per game fewer than the Fijian Drua (20).
Fergus Lee-Warner (Western Force) has made eight offloads in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season, the most by any player in the competition and two more than the Fijian Drua’s best (Peni Matawalu – 6).
Prediction
@rugby365com: Western Force by three points.
Teams:
Fijian Drua: 15 Jona Mataiciwa, 14 Selestino Ravutaumada, 13 Apisalome Vota, 12 Kalaveti Ravouvou, 11 Vinaya Habosi, 10 Teti Tela, 9 Frank Lomani, 8 Nemani Nagusa (captain), 7 Vilive Miramira, 6 Jovesa Tamani, 5 Te Ahiwaru Cirikidaveta, 4 Sorovakatini Tuifagalele, 3 Samuela Tawake, 2 Mesulame Dolokoto, 1 Kaliopasi Uluilakepa.
Replacements: 16 Zuriel Togiatama, 17 Jone Koroiduadua, 18 Manasa Saulo, 19 Chris Minimbi, 20 Kitione Salawa, 21 Peni Matawalu, 22 Napolioni Bolaca, 23 Onisi Ratave.
Western Force: 15 Jake Strachan, 14 Byron Ralston, 13 Richard Kahui, 12 Bayley Kuenzle, 11 Manasa Mataele, 10 Jake McIntyre, 9 Ian Prior, 8 Brynard Stander, 7 Ollie Callan, 6 Fergus Lee-Warner, 5 Izack Rodda, 4 Jeremy Thrush, 3 Greg Holmes, 2 Feleti Kaitu'u, 1 Harrison Lloyd.
Replacements: 16 Andrew Ready, 17 Bo Abra, 18 Santiago Medrano, 19 Jackson Pugh, 20 Tim Anstee, 21 Issak Fines-Leleiwasa, 22 Reesjan Pasitoa, 23 Grason Makara.
Referee: Nic Berry
Assistant referees: Reuben Keane, James Palmer
TMO: Brett Cronan
Moana Pasifika v Chiefs
(Mt Smart Stadium, Auckland - Kick-off: 19.05; 06.05 GMT)
This will be the inaugural Super Rugby clash between Moana Pasifika and the Chiefs; the last time the Chiefs lost their first game against a team in Super Rugby was in 1997 when they lost their first game against the Cheetahs (27-13) – they have picked up six straight wins in such fixtures since.
The Chiefs have won nine of their last 11 Super Rugby regular season games against teams from outside New Zealand, including their last two on the bounce; they conceded fewer than 20 points in seven of those 11 games.
The Chiefs have won six of their last eight Super Rugby matches (L2), including a 24-21 victory against the Crusaders last time out (Round Four, 2022 Super Rugby Pacific).
This will be Moana Pasifika’s second Super Rugby match at Forsyth Barr Stadium; they lost to the Crusaders in their inaugural game in the competition last time out (33-12, 4 March 2022).
The Chiefs have made the most carries (131) and made the most running metres (851) per game of any team in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific competition, while no team has made fewer running metres than Moana Pasifika (523).
Moana Pasifika made 10 offloads in their inaugural Super Rugby match last time out (4 March 2022 v Crusaders); only the Chiefs (12) have made more per game in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific campaign.
The Chiefs have crossed the gainline on 75 carries per game in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season, the most of any team in the competition; the Hurricanes (67) are ranked third in this category (Blues – 69).
Prediction
@rugby365com: Chiefs by 15 points.
Teams:
Moana Pasifika: 15 William Havili, 14 Tima Fainga’anuku, 13 Levi Aumua, 12 Danny Toala, 11 Neria Foma’i, 10 Christian Leali’ifano, 9 Jonathan Taumateine, 8 Henry Time-Stowers, 7 Solomone Funaki, 6 Sione Tu’ipulotu, 5 Samuel Slade, 4 Mike McKee, 3 Sekope Kepu (captain), 2 Luteru Tolai, 1 Ezekiel Lindenmuth.
Replacements: 16 Samiuela Moli, 17 Taukiha’amea Koloamatagi, 18 Joe Apikotoa, 19 Alex McRobbie, 20 Josh Kaifa, 21 Ereatara Enari, 22 Lincoln McClutchie, 23 Fine Inisi.
Chiefs: 15 Kaleb Trask, 14 Emoni Narawa, 13 Alex Nankivell, 12 Rameka Poihipi, 11 Jonah Lowe, 10 Bryn Gatland, 9 Brad Weber (captain), 8 Pita Gus Sowakula, 7 Hamilton Burr, 6 Tupou Vaa’i, 5 Brodie Retallick, 4 Laghlan McWhannell, 3 Sione Mafileo, 2 Bradley Slater, 1 Ollie Norris.
Replacements: 16 Tyrone Thompson, 17 Atu Moli, 18 Solomone Tukuafu, 19 Samipeni Finau, 20 Mitch Brown, 21 Rivez Reihana, 22 Josh Ioane, 23 Quinn Tupaea.
Referee: Paul Williams
Assistant referees: Ben O'Keeffe, Mike Winter
TMO: Richard Kelly
Waratahs v Melbourne Rebels
(Sydney Cricket Ground, Sydney - 19.45; 08.45 GMT)
The Melbourne Rebels have won four of their last five Super Rugby matches against the Waratahs (L1), including each of their last two meetings – more than they won in all their 17 games prior in the competition (W2, L15).
The Melbourne Rebels will be aiming for back-to-back wins against the Waratahs in Sydney for the first time in the history of Super Rugby, following their 36-25 victory in their most recent such fixture (Round 10, 2021 Super Rugby AU).
The Waratahs will be aiming for back-to-back wins in Super Rugby for the first time since August 2020, following their 22-17 victory against the Western Force last time out (Round Four, 2022 Super Rugby Pacific).
The Melbourne Rebels have lost their last nine Super Rugby matches in succession; only once have they been on a longer losing run in the history of the competition (L12 – April 2011 to March 2012).
Only the Western Force (8) have stolen more lineouts than the Waratahs (5) and Melbourne Rebels (5) in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific campaign.
The Melbourne Rebels have made 14 tackle breaks per game in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season, the fewest of any team in the competition and five per game fewer than the NSW Waratahs (19).
The Melbourne Rebels have won 15 lineouts per game (inc. steals) in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season, more than any other team in the competition and four per game more than the NSW Waratahs (11).
Prediction
@rugby365com: Waratahs by 17 points.
Teams:
Waratahs: 15 Will Harrison, 14 Dylan Pietsch, 13 Izaia Perese, 12 Lalakai Foketi, 11 Alex Newsome, 20 Ben Donaldson, 9 Jake Gordon (captain), 8 Will Harris, 7 Charlie Gamble, 6 Hugh Sinclair, 5 Geoff Cridge, 4 Jed Holloway, 3 Harry Johnson-Holmes, 2 Dave Porecki, 1 Angus Bell.
Replacements: 16 Tom Horton, 17 Te Tera Faulkner, 18 Ruan Smith/Archer Holz, 19 Langi Gleeson, 20 Carlo Tizzano, 21 Teddy Wilson, 22 Jamie Roberts, 23 Mark Nawaqanitawase.
Melbourne Rebels: 15 Reece Hodge, 14 Andrew Kellaway, 13 Young Tonumaipea, 12 Raymond Nu'u, 11 Glen Vaihu, 10 Matt To'omua, 9 Joe Powell, 8 Tamati Ioane, 7 Richard Hardwick, 6 Michael Wells (captain), 5 Josh Canham, 4 Matt Philip, 3 Cabous Eloff, 2 Jordan Uelese, 1 Cameron Orr.
Replacements: 16 Efi Ma'afu, 17 Matt Gibbon, 18 Rhys van Nek, 19 Sam Wallis, 20 Brad Wilkin, 21 James Tuttle, 22 Carter Gordon, 23 Stacey Ili.
Referee: Graham Cooper
Assistant referees: Damon Murphy, Matt Kellahan
TMO: James Leckie
Source: AAP & @SuperRugby
*Statistical information provided by Opta Data