Super Rugby Pacific, Round Two - Teams and Predictions
INSPIRATION: The Waratahs are drawing inspiration from wheelchair-bound former Wallaby Richard Tombs as they strive to rise again.
The Waratahs host Australia's reigning champion Queensland Reds at Leichhardt Oval on Friday intent on backing up last week's drought-breaking Super Rugby Pacific win over Fijian Drua.
After a winless campaign in 2021, the Waratahs are desperate to climb off the canvas and be a force again.
But they quickly learnt from a "confronting" appearance at Waratahs training on Thursday by Tombs that their struggles are nothing compared to what the great and five-Test centre has endured over the past three and a half years.
Tombs was filling in as goalkeeper for his northern beaches soccer club in August 2018 when his world came crashing down in an accidental collision that resulted in a severed spinal cord at age 50.
"He's had some challenges that we haven't faced and it was an inspiration to hear him speak," said Waratahs captain Jake Gordon.
"Obviously, it's a really good test for us [against the Reds] and it [Tombs' visit] works perfectly with what we've got coming. It was awesome."
First-year coach Darren Coleman said he hoped Tombs' visit resonated with the playing group as much as it did to him.
"There's some guys there that it resonated with. You've only got to look at him and it's confronting and it makes football players appreciate that any day things can change quick," Coleman said.
Gordon and Coleman said as much as the stoic manner in which Tombs deals with his adversities impressed the Waratahs, the fact he also featured in the winless NSW side that went through 1991 undefeated before dominating Australia's triumphant World Cup squad was equally relevant.
"He spoke a lot about his rugby journey, which was tangible for us," Gordon said.
"He'd been in teams that have struggled and which turned it around the year after. That was tangible.
"The other stuff was more inspirational for us, the way he's dealt with that."
Win or lose against the Reds, Coleman said leaning on "good people" like Tombs who have a connection with the Waratahs can only be a positive for his young team.
The coach has no doubt the Reds will provide a genuine litmus test after last week's 40-10 demolition job on the Drua debutants.
"This will be a real test to see where we're at," he said.
"We obviously had a good pre-season, a solid start against the Drua but this will be where we're measured."
Meanwhile, Friday's first clash is a huge one between South Island rivals the Crusaders and Highlanders in Dunedin.
Saturday kicks off with the Brumbies hosting the Fijian Drua in Canberra. Expect a fast-paced game with the Brumbies coming off the back of a four-try win over the Force and the Drua showing plenty of attacking potential in their opening clash against the Waratahs.
All eyes will be on Dunedin on Saturday as former NRL star Roger Tuivasa-Sheck makes his highly anticipated Super Rugby debut against the Hurricanes.
Round Two is capped off with a clash between the Melbourne Rebels and Western Force at AAMI Park with the winner of the match set to make a big leap up the competition ladder.
Round Two teams and predictions below!
Friday, February 25:
Highlanders v Crusaders
(Otago Stadium, Dunedin - Kick-off: 19.05; 06.05 GMT)
The Highlanders defeated the Crusaders 33-12 in their most recent Super Rugby meeting (April 2021), snapping a seven-match losing run against them in completed fixtures; they will be aiming for back-to-back wins against the Crusaders for the first time since May 2016.
The Crusaders have won six of their last eight completed away games against the Highlanders in Super Rugby (L2), including their last two on the bounce; they’ve have come back to win after trailing at half-time on the day three times in that span.
The Crusaders have won 11 of their last 12 completed Super Rugby away games (L1), including their last three in succession; although, that one defeat did come in their most recent match on the road against a fellow New Zealand team (26-25 v Chiefs in April 2021).
The Highlanders opened their 2022 Super Rugby Pacific campaign with a 10-point defeat to the Chiefs (16-26) and will be looking to avoid opening a Super Rugby campaign with back-to-back defeats for the first time since 2017.
The Highlanders (8 959) are 41 points shy of reaching 9,000 points scored in Super Rugby competitions; they have reached that mark in a game on 32 occasions in Super Rugby history including twice in 2021, although their most points in a game against the Crusaders is 37 in Round 7, 1997.
The Crusaders (175) and Highlanders (144) made more tackles than any other teams throughout the opening round of the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific competition (also Brumbies – 144).
The Crusaders retained possession on seven kicks in play in the opening round of the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific campaign, more than any other team; only the Melbourne Rebels (1) retained kicks fewer times than the Highlanders (2).
Prediction
@rugby365com: Crusaders by three points.
Teams:
Highlanders: 15 Connor Garden-Bachop, 14 Sam Gilbert, 13 Fetuli Paea, 12 Thomas Umaga-Jensen, 11 Josh Timu, 10 Mitch Hunt, 9 Aaron Smith (captain), 8 Gareth Evans, 7 James Lentjes, 6 Shannon Frizell, 5 Josh Dickson, 4 Manaaki Selby-Rickit, 3 Jermaine Ainsley, 2 Liam Coltman, 1 Ethan de Groot.
Replacements: 16 Rhys Marshall, 17 Daniel Lienert-Brown, 18 Josh Hohneck, 19 Bryn Evans, 20 Marino Mikaele-Tu'u, 21 Folau Fakatava, 22 Marty Banks, 23 Hugh Renton.
Crusaders: 15 Will Jordan, 14 Sevu Reece, 13 Braydon Ennor, 12 David Havili, 11 Leicester Fainga'anuku, 10 Fergus Burke, 9 Mitchell Drummond, 8 Cullen Grace, 7 Tom Christie, 6 Pablo Matera, 5 Scott Barrett (captain), 4 Sam Whitelock, 3 Oli Jager, 2 Brodie McAlister, 1 Joe Moody.
Replacements: 16 Shilo Klein, 17 George Bower, 18 Tamaiti Williams, 19 Quinten Strange, 20 Corey Kellow, 21 Bryn Hall, 22 Simon Hickey, 23 George Bridge.
Referee: Mike Fraser
Assistant referees: Brendon Pickerill, Angus Mabey
TMO: Chris Hart
Waratahs v Reds
(Leichhardt Oval, Sydney - Kick-off: 19.45; 18.45 AEST; 08.45 MT)
The Queensland Reds have won three of their last four Super Rugby matches against the NSW Waratahs (L1) including last two meetings, after losing 11 consecutive games against them prior.
The Queensland Reds will be aiming for back-to-back away victories against the NSW Waratahs in Super Rugby for the first time since July 2013, following their 46-14 win in their most recent such fixture (March 2021).
The NSW Waratahs will be looking to log back-to-back Super Rugby wins for the first time since August 2020 after opening their 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season with a 40-10 win over the Fijian Drua; the last time the NSW Waratahs scored 40+ points in consecutive Super Rugby games was in July 2016.
The NSW Waratahs have lost their last eight Super Rugby games against fellow Australian sides – their longest ever losing streak in such fixtures – while the Queensland Reds have won nine of their last 10 Australian derbies (L1).
The Queensland Reds have won only four of their last 18 Super Rugby games played as the away team on the day (D1, L13) and have lost their last three games on the bounce when on the road.
The NSW Waratahs made 4.6m per carry in the opening round of the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific campaign, the most of any team in the competition and 1.2m per carry more than the Queensland Reds (3.4m).
Jake Gordon (NSW Waratahs) gained 20 metres per carry from his five carries in the opening round of the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific campaign, more than any other player in the competition.
Prediction
@rugby365com: Reds by five points.
Teams:
Waratahs: 15 Alex Newsome, 14 Dylan Pietsch, 13 Izaia Perese, 12 Lalakai Foketi, 11 James Turner, 10 Ben Donaldson, 9 Jake Gordon (captain), 8 Will Harris, 7 Charlie Gamble, 6 Jeremy Williams, 5 Geoff Cridge, 4 Jed Holloway, 3 Harry Johnson-Holmes, 2 Dave Porecki, 1 Angus Bell.
Replacements: 16 Tom Horton, 17 Tetera Faulkner, 18 Ruan Smith, 19 Hugh Sinclair, 20 Carlo Tizzano, 21 Henry Robertson, 22 Tane Edmed, 23 Jamie Roberts.
Reds: 15 Jock Campbell, 14 Jordan Petaia, 13 Josh Flook, 12 Hamish Stewart, 11 Filipo Daugunu, 10 James O'Connor, 9 Tate McDermott (captain), 8 Harry Wilson, 7 Fraser McReight, 6 Angus Scott-Young, 5 Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, 4 Angus Blyth, 3 Taniela Tupou, 2 Alex Mafi, 1 Feao Fotuaika.
Replacements: 16 Josh Nasser, 17 Harry Hoopert, 18 Zane Nonggorr, 19 Ryan Smith, 20 Seru Uru, 21 Spencer Jeans, 22 Lawson Creighton, 23 Mac Grealy.
Referee: Damon Murphy
Assistant referees: Angus Gardner, Matt Kellahan
TMO: James Leckie
Saturday, February 26:
Brumbies v Fijian Drua
(Canberra Stadium, Canberra - Kick-off: 14.35; 15.35 FJT; 03.35 GMT)
This is set to be the first Super Rugby match between the Brumbies and Fijian Drua; the Brumbies have lost only one of their last eight games when facing a team for the first time (W6, D1), a 24-25 defeat to the Rebels in February 2011.
The Brumbies have failed to score 30 points in any of their last nine Super Rugby regular season games; the last time they went longer without reaching that mark in such fixtures was a 10-game stretch in 2008.
The Brumbies have lost two of their last three Super Rugby home matches against teams from outside Australia (W1), after enjoying an eight-match winning run in such fixtures prior.
The Fijian Drua began their Super Rugby campaign with a 30-point defeat to the Waratahs; it was the second-biggest win that the NSW team have achieved in Round One of a Super Rugby campaign (43-0 vs Melbourne Rebels in 2011).
The Brumbies scored 5.2 points per entry into the opposition 22m zone in the opening round of the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season, the most of any team in the competition and more than 10 times as many as the Fijian Drua (0.5).
The Fijian Drua made 15 entries into their opponents 22m zone in the opening round of the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific campaign, more than any other team in the competition and three times as many as the Brumbies (5).
The Fijian Drua’s 11 dominant tackles throughout the opening round of Super Rugby Pacific were five more than any other team; Isoa Nasilasila (2) and Vinaya Habosi (2) were two of just five players across the competition to make multiple dominant tackles.
Prediction
@rugby365com: Brumbies by 25 points.
Teams:
Brumbies: 15 Tom Banks, 14 Tom Wright, 13 Len Ikitau, 12 Irae Simone, 11 Andy Muirhead, 10 Noah Lolesio, 9 Ryan Lonergan, 8 Pete Samu, 7 Rory Scott, 6 Rob Valetini, 5 Nick Frost, 4 Darcy Swain, 3 Allan Alaalatoa (captain), 2 Lachlan Lonergan, 1 James Slipper.
Replacements: 16 Billy Pollard, 17 Scott Sio, 18 Tom Ross, 19 Ed Kennedy, 20 Jahrome Brown, 21 Nic White, 22 Chris Feauai-Sautia, 23 Jesse Mogg.
Fijian Drua: 15 Baden Kerr, 14 Onisi Ratave, 13 Apisalome Vota, 12 Kalaveti Ravouvou, 11 Vinaya Hobosi, 10 Caleb Muntz, 9 Simione Kuruvoli, 8 Nemani Nagusa (captain), 7 Kitione Salawa, 6 Vilive Miramira, 5 Ratu Rotuisolia, 4 Isoa Nasilasila, 3 Samuela Tawake, 2 Tevita Ikanivere, 1 Kaliopasi Uluilakepa.
Replacements: 16 Mesulame Dolokoto, 17 Timoci Sauvoli, 18 Manasa Saulo, 19 Te Ahiwaru Cirikidaveta, 20 Meli Derenalagi, 21 Joseva Tamani, 22 Peni Matawalu, 23 Napolioni Bolaca.
Referee: Reuben Keane
Assistant referees: Angus Gardner, Damon Murphy
TMO: Brett Cronan
Blues v Hurricanes
(Otago Stadium, Dunedin - Kick-off: 19.05; 06.05 GMT)
The Blues have won four of their last five Super Rugby matches against the Hurricanes (L1) including each of their last two, after losing nine consecutive games against them prior.
The Blues have won their last two Super Rugby games at home against the Hurricanes; the last and only previous time they won more home games in succession against them was a four-game stretch in their first four meetings in the competition (1997-2003).
The Blues have won their last seven Super Rugby matches on the bounce; the last and only time they enjoyed a longer winning run in the competition was a 12-match span from March to May in 1997.
The Hurricanes will be looking to avoid opening a campaign with back-to-back defeats for the third time in their last four Super Rugby tournaments after succumbing to a 42-32 loss to the Crusaders in Round One of Super Rugby Pacific.
The Hurricanes have won only two of their last 10 Super Rugby games played against New Zealand opposition (L8), with both of their wins in that span coming against the Highlanders.
The Hurricanes beat a total of 33 defenders throughout the first round of the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific competition, 14 more than any other team in the competition.
The Hurricanes made 46 dominant carries in the opening round of the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season, 16 more than next-best Crusaders (30).
Prediction
@rugby365com: Blues by seven points.
Teams:
Blues: 15 Zarn Sullivan, 14 Mark Telea, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, 11 Caleb Clarke, 10 Harry Plummer, 9 Finlay Christie, 8 Hoskins Sotutu, 7 Adrian Choat, 6 Tom Robinson (captain), 5 Josh Goodhue, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Nepo Laulala, 2 Kurt Eklund, 1 Alex Hodgman.
Replacements: 16 Ricky Riccitelli, 17 Ofa Tuungafasi, 18 Marcel Renata, 19 Sam Darry, 20 Anton Segner, 21 Sam Nock, 22 Stephen Perofeta, 23 Tanielu Tele'a.
Hurricanes: 15 Jordie Barrett, 14 Wes Goosen, 13 Bailyn Sullivan, 12 Julian Savea, 11 Salesi Rayasi, 10 Jackson Garden-Bachop, 9 Jamie Booth, 8 Ardie Savea (captain), 7 Blake Gibson, 6 Reed Prinsep, 5 Justin Sangster, 4 James Blackwell, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Asafo Aumua, 1 Pouri Rakete-Stones.
Replacements: 16 Jacob Devery, 17 Xavier Numia, 18 Ben May, 19 Devan Flanders, 20 Brayden Iose, 21 Richard Judd, 22 Ruben Love, 23 Peter Umaga-Jensen.
Referee: James Doleman
Assistant referees: Paul Williams, Marcus Playle
TMO: Chris Hart
Melbourne Rebels v Western Force
(Melbourne Rectangular Stadium, Melbourne - Kick-off: 19.45; 16.45 AWST, 08.45 GMT)
The Western Force defeated the Rebels 16-15 in their most recent Super Rugby meeting (April 2021), snapping a three-match losing run against them; they will be aiming for back-to-back victories against the Melbourne side for the first time in the history of the competition.
The Melbourne Rebels have lost their last four Super Rugby matches in Victoria; the last time they went on a longer losing run in their home state was a seven-match span from May 2014 to March 2015.
The Melbourne Rebels have won only one of their last five Super Rugby games against Australian opposition (L4) and have not won at home against fellow Australian teams in any of their last three attempts.
The Western Force’s last Super Rugby win away from home came in Round Eight of the 2021 Super Rugby AU season against the Melbourne Rebels (16-15); they have since lost five consecutive away games in Super Rugby competitions.
The Melbourne Rebels stole four line-outs in the opening round of the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific campaign, twice as many as any other team in the competition (Western Force – 2).
The Melbourne Rebels gained just 220 metres in the opening round of the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific campaign, the fewest of any team and 186 metres fewer than the Western Force (406) who made the third-most of any team.
The Melbourne Rebels and Western Force each made just a single line break in the opening round of the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific campaign; only the Fijian Drua (0) made fewer.
Prediction
@rugby365com: Western Force by three points.
Teams:
Melbourne Rebels: 15 Reece Hodge, 14 Lachie Anderson, 13 Stacey Ili, 12 Raymond Nu'u, 11 Glen Vaihu, 10 Matt To'omua, 9 Joe Powell, 8 Michael Wells (captain), 7 Brad Wilkin, 6 Sam Wallis, 5 Ross Haylett-Petty, 4 Matt Philip, 3 Cabous Eloff, 2 Jordan Uelese, 1 Cameron Orr.
Replacements: 16 James Hanson, 17 Matt Gibbon, 18 Sef Fa'agase, 19 Thomas Nowlan, 20 Tamati Ioane, 21 James Tuttle, 22 Carter Gordon, 23 Young Ton-mile.
Western Force: 15 Jake Strachan, 14 Toni Pull, 13 Kyle Godwin, 12 Richard Kahui, 11 Manasa Mataele, 10 Reesjan Pasitoa, 9 Ian Prior, 8 Tim Anstee, 7 Kane Koteka, 6 Brynard Stander, 5 Izack Rodda, 4 Fergus Lee-Warner, 3 Santiago Medrano, 2 Feleti Kaitu'u (captain), 1 Tom Roberston.
Replacements: 16 Andrew Ready, 17 Harry Lloyd, 18 Greg Holmes, 19 Ryan McCauley, 20 Ollie Callan, 21 Issak Fines-Leleiwasa, 22 Jake McIntyre, 23 Byron Ralston.
Referee: Nic Berry
Assistant referees: Jordan way, James Palmer
TMO: Oli Kellett
Sunday, February 27:
Moana Pasifika v Chiefs – postponed
Source: AAP & @SuperRugby
*Statistical information provided by Opta Data