Stats show SA teams' chances of reaching the URC play-offs

STATS ATTACK: Sixteen rounds of the United Rugby Championship are gone, two to go, and a huge amount in the melting pot.

Thirteen of the 16 teams enter the final fortnight trying to secure their URC play-off position and/or a 2023/24 Champions Cup place.

Leinster, Glasgow Warriors, Benetton, and Scarlets will have European adventures to come, with Leinster facing Toulouse for a spot in the Champions Cup final and the URC guaranteed a spot in the Challenge Cup final.

But that is all in a faraway time. Before those semifinals in Dublin, Llanelli, and Toulon there is business to be completed on the home front, where just four sides have secured their spots in the URC play-offs and the 2023/24 Champions Cup.

Leinster have locked in the top spot ahead of their trip south to face the Lions and Bulls. While the Stormers, Ulster, and Glasgow. have also secured their spots in the 2023/24 Champions Cup. After that, not much is clear.

Oval Insights will help predict the Play-Off Probability Percentages of the teams.

Lions:

The lowest-ranked South African side is in weirdly good shape given their position in the table.

Their eight wins already secured ensures they can’t fall into the same tiebreaker trap faced by Ospreys and Edinburgh, while Zebre’s visit in Round 18 offers a potential five-pointer.

Before that, the small matter of some Leinster tourists who have locked in their top seed status and could afford to leave their front liners in Dublin to rest up for the Toulouse battle at the end of the month. It’s still Leinster, and that -96 points difference could yet be crucial, and it’s not in their own hands, but there is hope in Johannesburg.

Lions'to-do list

The Lions need to make hay in Round 18 against Zebre.

However, to even get to the stage where that will matter they need the Bulls to slip up against that same Zebre side in order to get away with not beating Leinster. Similarly, a draw between Sharks and Benetton would be very, very useful.

Play-Off Probability: 18 percent

Sharks

The key match of Week 17 takes place in Durban where Sharks (41 points) and Benetton (40 points) will decide not just each other’s URC fate but also potentially, half the teams in the league.

The winner puts huge pressure on Bulls and Connacht, and potentially Munster, while a draw this Friday  (without any try bonus points) keeps Cardiff, Lions, Ospreys, and even Scarlets in 13th potentially still interested in 8th place.

With Sharks having a 63-point advantage over the Italians in the Points Difference column, a win would see Benetton needing lots of upsets happening to the teams above them to keep them with a realistic chance in week 18 where they still need to face the Stormers. Otherwise, the season’s focus shifts to the Challenge Cup semifinal at the end of the month.

Sharks' to-do list

Do not lose to Benetton. Nine match points over the final two weeks guarantee the Sharks a play-off spot no matter what happens above them. Losing to Benetton is bad. Stormers beating Munster and Cardiff keeping Connacht in check would be very useful.

Play-Off Probability: 72 percent

Bulls

Connacht and Bulls, sixth and seventh with 44 and 43 points respectively, have a solid puncher’s chance over the next couple of weekends of either maintaining or improving their position.

The South Africans host Zebre and a third-string Leinster while Connacht host Cardiff before travelling to face a Glasgow side who could have nothing to play for. With Munster’s very tough run-in we could easily see three teams tied on 48 points after this weekend and everything on the line in the final week.

Bulls' to-do list

Like Munster and Connacht, finishing in the play-offs is in the Bulls' own hands.

Munster’s horrendous final two fixtures mean that realistically two wins for the Bulls locks in a top 8 finish, with a very good chance of seventh and a coin flip of sixth, with that higher position being potentially very important this season given events that will play out elsewhere.

If the Bulls can get a BP win over Zebre any kind of win over Leinster’s travelling contingent puts them in a very, very strong position indeed.

Play-Off Probability: 85 percent