Preview: South Africa v Wales

By Paul Dobson

Friday 25 Oct 2019

WORLD CUP SEMIFINAL: This match is business. In all knock-out matches, there is a chasm between victory and defeat.

The bigger the competition, the bigger the chasm, and a World Cup semifinal is high up on the list of big rugby competitions - pretty near the peak on the Everest of rugby competitions.

There will be no messing about as two top teams, coached by top coaches, meet.

Nothing will be left to chance in the preparation of these two teams.

For both of them, it will be a long, agonising week.

And when Jérôme Garcès blows his whistle to start the match, there will be a rush for pent-up emotion to translate itself into physical energy in a match that will fly by for the players.

Suddenly, it will be half-time. Suddenly the final whistle will sound, and the chasm will be there for all to see - shooting glee on one side, numbing disappointment on the other.

Of all matches, it may just be the worst one to lose, for it has failure written on it in a way that is worse than losing the Final when just getting there is an achievement.

Both South Africa and Wales have got where they are by playing the sort of rugby that they are playing and they are unlikely to change.

That means that defence will play an important part.

It would seem that South African defence has been harder to penetrate than that of Wales.

In their five World Cup matches so far this year, South Africa conceded 39 points. Wales conceded 88 points

South Africa conceded three tries. Wales conceded 12 tries.

Both teams kick a lot.

Against Japan, in the quarterfinal, South Africa kicked 15 box-kicks.

Against France, in their quarterfinal, Wales kicked nine box kicks. Wales relied on more kicking from exceptional fullback Liam Williams.

South Africa scored more points and more tries at the 2019 World Cup.

South Africa scored 211 points, including 30 tries. Wales scored 156 points, including 19 tries

* Preview continues below video ...

Players to Watch

Sadly, South Africa's most-watched player, Cheslin Kolbe, will not be playing. He has been best of the Springboks at dealing with the high ball, outstanding on attack and outstanding on defence. It is also likely that Wales's outstanding fullback who can kick far and is brilliant on evasive counterattack, Liam Williams, will not be playing.

The game will be the poorer for their absence.

You will see the two active scrumhalves - Francois de Klerk of South Africa, an outstanding rugby player with an eye for opportunities and a hound on defence, and Gareth Davies who needs no second invitation to run with the ball. Each of the left wings, Makazole Mapimpi of South Africa and Josh Adams of Wales, has scored five tries at the World Cup. Jonathan Davies is always a man to watch, one of the world's best centres.

https://www.facebook.com/WelshRugbyUnion/videos/2390877834498000/

Head to Head.

There are some good individual match-ups:

Makazole Mapimpi against powerful George North, who has been having a quiet World Cup; Damien de Allende against New Zealander Hadleigh Parkes, two strong inside centres; lock and much-used line-out man Lodewyk de Jager against lock and much-used line-out man Alun Wynn Jones; strong, energetic flank against strong, energetic flank - Pieter-Steph du Toit against Justin Tipuric; goalkicker against goalkicker - Handré Pollard against Dan Biggar, where Biggar has an 87 percent success rate to Pollard's 80 percent.

There are also unit match-ups - front row against front row, loose trio against loose trio, line-out against line-out, maul against maul. The maul is a big part of Springbok tactic - to wear down opponents and dent their morale and also as a prelude to tries. The Springboks used it effectively against Japan but are sure to find Wales a tougher nut to crack. The Welsh will be expecting the maul and will have cunning plans to neutralise it?

History

South Africa first played Wales in 1906. Wales first won in 1999. The next time they won was in 2014, but they have won the last four matches between the two countries. South Africa have beaten Wales 28 times while Wales have won seven times, but of those seven four have been in the most recent encounters - in 2016, 2017 and 2018.

Recent matches

World Cup History

The two countries have met twice in the World Cup and on each occasion, South Africa have scraped home - 17-16 in 2011 and 23-19 in 2015.

World Cup 2019

South Africa have played five, winning four and losing one.

Wales have played five, winning five.

South Africa: lost to New Zealand 13-23; beat Namibia 57-3, Italy 49-3, Canada 66-7 and Japan 26-3 (quarterfinal)

Wales: beat Georgia 43-14, Australia 29-25, Uruguay 35-13, Fiji 29-17, France 20-19 (quarterfinal)

Wales have winners' attitudes. They seemed dead and buried against France in the quarterfinal but kept France scoreless in the second half and got home by a point. They find a way of winning matches.

Discipline

South Africa has had one yellow card. Wales has had three yellow cards. In the quarterfinals, South Africa was penalised eight times, Wales five times.

Prediction:

It's one thing to know that South Africa will be coming at you physically and another thing to deal with it effectively enough to dominate the game. The Springboks are big, strong and determined and they have the wings to score tries. We suggest that South Africa will win by 12 points or more.

Teams

South Africa: 15 Willie le Roux, 14 Sibusiso Nkosi, 13 Lukhanyo Am, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Makazole Mapimpi, 10 Handré Pollard, 9 Faf de Klerk, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi, 5 Lodewyk de Jager, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Bongi Mbonambi, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.

Replacements: 16 Malcolm Marx, 17 Steven Kitshoff, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 Rudolph Snyman, 20 Franco Mostert, 21 Francois Louw, 22 Herschel Jantjies, 23 Frans Steyn.

Wales: 15 Leigh Halfpenny. 14 George North, 13 Jonathan Davies 12, Hadleigh Parkes, 11 Josh Adams, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Gareth Davies, 8 Ross Moriarty, 7 Justin Tipuric, 6 Aaron Wainwright, 5 Alun Wyn Jones, 4 Jake Ball, 3 Tomas Francis, 2 Ken Owens, 1 Wyn Jones.

Replacements: 16 Elliot Dee, 17 Rhys Carre, 18 Dillon Lewis, 19 Adam Beard, 20 Aaron Shingler, 21 Tomos Williams, 22 Rhys Patchell, 23 Owen Watkin.

Date: Sunday, 27 October 2019

Venue: International Stadium Yokohama, Yokohama City, capacity 72 000

Kick-off: 18.00 (09.00 GMT; 09.00 UK & Ireland time; 11.00 SA time)

Expected weather: Cloudy after rain on the days before, with a high of 22°C, dropping to 17°C.

Referee: Jérôme Garcès (France)

Assistant referees: Wayne Barnes (England), Ben O’Keeffe (New Zealand)

TMO: Ben Skeen (New Zealand)

@rugby365com

Unsung hero behind the Springboks

Rassie will continue 'coaching'

Semifinal tactics: Don’t pass, don’t run

Peyper: James Haskell blows up at World Rugby.