Back down to earth for me!
Round Three wasn't the best of Super 14 weekends for rugby365.com columnist Robbie Fleck. Check out his Round Four predictions...
Jeesh, Round Three of the Super 14 was shocking weekend for me! After making a great start to my predictions, I took something of a pasting last week.
I guess that's the nature of this Super 14 competition and I certainly won't be giving up in a hurry, but I have put a lot more thought into my Round Four predictions.
Of all the sides in action last week, the Hurricanes, in particular, impressed me, whilst the Sharks also made a mockery of my predictions.
The Sharks were good value in their win over the Chiefs, but I thought the Chiefs let themselves down badly and, oddly enough, they looked like a side that wasn't coached well.
I don't believe that for one minute, however. All Kiwi coaches are superb technicians and you don't coach a New Zealand Super 14 team without being a half-decent coach. They will get better this season.
One issue for me though, another New Zealand-related one, is the lack of top-class flyhalves in their game at present. With Dan Carter injured - and on sabbatical - and Nick Evans and Luke McAlister playing in England, that leaves Stephen Donald as their obvious candidate in the No.10 shirt.
Apparently the Kiwi coaching staff like him because he takes the ball up to the advantage line, but, personally, I don't think he has enough class to lead the All Blacks' attacking game - nevermind their defence - against the likes of the Springboks and the Wallabies.
Anyhow, more of that later in the season. For now, here's my predictions for Round Four:
CHIEFS v FORCE:
Friday, March 6 - 8.35am
The Chiefs really did disappoint last week.
I backed them to beat the Sharks because of fatigue - with the Sharks having been forced to travel from SA during the week - but I thought the Chiefs made life a bit easy for them, as good as the Sharks were.
It's hard to rate this Chiefs team at times. They have all the pace in the world in the shape of Anesi, Masaga and Sivivatu, but they just could not string it together consistently last week.
The Force are a well-coached team and despite their problems off the field, you could see the influence of John Mitchell coming through against the Brumbies last week. What a win for the Force - one of the many I got wrong! - but can they do it in New Zealand, where they have not had a lot of success in the Super 14?
Fleckie's prediction: This is the Chiefs' last chance and I cannot see them letting me down yet again... The Chiefs will be bolstered by the return of Richard Kahui, who makes such a difference to their backline organisation, and I am tipping them to win by five points at least.
WARATAHS v REDS:
Friday, March 6 - 10.40am
The Waratahs are shaping up as top four material and this game, despite being all-Australian derby (where no quarter is given!), has all the makings of a classic encounter.
In the past, these matches have always been dour - especially with the Reds having always been a defence-minded side in the days of my old Bath coach 'Knuckles' Connolly - but the Reds are my favourite side to watch in the Super 14 at the moment and the 'Tahs have showed their class in 2009.
I am a huge admirer of Phil Mooney's coaching style and the approach of his team. This season might be a bit early for them, but this side in about two or three years' time could be a serious force to be reckoned with.
Fleckie's prediction: As good as the Reds are, the Waratahs will have too much firepower for them - especially at home. The 'Tahs by 10 points.
HURRICANES v CHEETAHS:
Saturday, March 7 - 4.30am
If the Hurricanes played every game like they did last week's against the Crusaders, few sides would be able to match them in the Super 14.
However, they remain something of an enigma and until they address their issues of consistency - or rather, the lack thereof - they will struggle to actually win a trophy.
Ma'a Nonu and Conrad Smith give this backline, and the Hurricanes team, a completely different look; skill, pace, strength and top-level experience. Why they have not been starting together all season is beyond me.
The Cheetahs, meanwhile, well, they're in serious trouble. I feel sorry for them and I feel sorry for Naka Drotské, who seems to be under unnecessary pressure given the lack of playing resources at his disposal.
The Cheetahs have for so long been a feeding ground for other provinces, but it has left them really bare this season... and even more so now that Juan Smith is out of action.
Fleckie's prediction: The Hurricanes by at least 15 points.
BLUES v SHARKS:
Saturday, March 7 - 6.30am
My game of the weekend; it should be an absolute cracker.
The Sharks proved just what a quality side they are against the Chiefs last week. Yes, I went against them in my predictions, but I honestly thought that travel fatigue would get the better of them.
In the end, they did get tired, but they managed to hold out and luck was with them, too, I guess. In the end, however, I am glad they proved me wrong!
As I said last week, I don't think the Sharks will come back unbeaten from this tour, but they are very unlikely to lose more than one match. Frans Steyn and Adi Jacobs were particularly good - they are the form centre duo for South Africa - and I thought JP Pietersen was particularly brilliant.
The Blues, meanwhile, were not entirely convincing on their tour of South Africa; the Bulls hammered them and the Stormers lost a game, despite dominating possession.
They won't be at their best this week either - it's a long trip from SA and the Sharks have been abroad for a week already, they will be ready and waiting.
Fleckie's prediction: The well-drilled Sharks to win by 10 points.
HIGHLANDERS v CRUSADERS:
Saturday, March 7 - 8.35am
The Highlanders have been better than everybody expected, but they are still winless in 2009 and I cannot see them opening their account this weekend.
Yes, the Crusaders were not very good last week in going down to the 'Canes at home, but I find it hard to believe that they will lose three on the bounce - having also lost to the Brumbies three weeks ago.
They will miss Casey Laulala at centre, he has been the form No.13 in New Zealand, but they will still have too much for the home team.
Fleckie's prediction: The Crusaders will bounce back after last week... The Men in Red and Black by 10 points.
BULLS v STORMERS:
Saturday, March 7 - 5pm
There is something missing from this Stormers side and without being part of the mix, it is hard to say exactly what.
It is a shame though as I rate this team and I honestly thought they would make the play-offs this year. They cannot, however, be expected to make the semifinals by losing two out of three matches at home.
There is plenty of pressure on this team, the media are on their backs, but it seems that Rassie and his coaches are copping the most flak at this stage.
To be honest, the coaches have done all they can, it's up to the players now - especially the senior ones - to step up and take control for the first time this season.
Some players are doing well individually, but, as a team, they are not performing. If ever there was an opportunity to step up, it is now.
Schalk Burger is in doubt with a calf muscle injury, which could have a big bearing on the result, but if he does not prove his fitness, one of my guys at UCT - Tiger Bax - will come onto the Stormers bench.
It's a great opportunity for Tiger and I hope he gets a chance should he be called onto the bench. He is a young man with loads of talent and a bright future and even though he has not fully developed yet, physically, he is a mature guy and he has a big heart.
He will benefit a lot from making his debut against a quality team like the Bulls at Loftus.
The Bulls, of course, are top of the log and an in-form team. Fourie du Preez is a fantastic rugby player and he proved it once again last week, Victor Matfield is back to full fitness and Bakkies Botha was in a frightening mood last week.
I see Bryan Habana is not playing - but to be absolutely honest, I don't think that could change the result in any way.
Fleckie's prediction: I don't think this will be the massacre everyone is expecting. I am tipping the Bulls to win, but it won't be by double figures - the Bulls by five.
Catch you next week,
Fleckie
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