It's Super 14 time
Picking up from last week's in-depth Super 14 tournament preview, former Springbok centre and sport365 columnist Robbie Fleck looks ahead to the opening weekend of southern hemisphere action with his game-by-game picks. Also, Fleckie also gives us the inside track on UCT's preparations for the inaugural FNB Varsity Cup!
As the Super 14 approaches, the 2007 Rugby World Cup already seems like a distant memory to me, especially with all the off-field shenanigans in recent weeks; starting with all the controversy surrounding Peter de Villiers's appointment and ending with this week's punch-up in Australia. (More of that later!)
Fortunately, all this talk and unnecessary distractions can now take a back seat, starting Friday, and I, for one, am very excited. As I said last week, we are crying out for a new Jonah Lomu or Tim Horan to explode onto the scene during 2008, and that excitement - of unearthing the next big thing in world rugby - is something that will keep me glued to my television set come Friday morning.
South Africa, of course, delivered some new stars of their own last year - again, I alluded to that in last week's column - but at the same time I'd like to see how the likes of Ryan Kankowski and Francois Steyn fare in their second full seasons of Super 14 rugby. Trust me, a second season is always the toughest for any player...
Another guy to keep an eye on, and for entirely different reasons, is Bulls scrumhalf Fourie du Preez. He is an established player; a Super 14 and a World Cup winner, but he has a massive role to play as a leader in 2008. A lot will lean on his broad shoulders without the likes of Heyneke Meyer and Victor Matfield in Pretoria and with Bakkies Botha currently out injured.
Looking at the first seven fixtures of the season this weekend, it really is tough to make accurate predictions, as none of the pre-season matches have been broadcast. Present form is always hard to gauge in the lead-up to any rugby tournament, but hopefully we should have more of an indication after this week's fixtures.
Here, then, are my predictions for Round One:
CRUSADERS v BRUMBIES:
Friday, February 15, 8.35am (SA time)
Christchurch
What a contrast we have in store for the opening game of the 2008 Super 14! Two former champions against each other, one at home (Crusaders), the other away from home (Brumbies) without their legendary and long-serving halfbacks, George Gregan and Stephen Larkham.
The Crusaders are a naturally attacking team and play the perfect brand of modern-day rugby; they are strong up front in the set-piece, they have a world-class flyhalf in Dan Carter and they can counter-attack from anywhere. The Brumbies, on the other hand, plan their phase-driven game ahead of the time and are very mechanical in their approach and execution.
Looking at the Crusaders' teamsheet, there are very few weaknesses - even without a Chris Jack, an Aaron Mauger or a Rico Gear, all of whom are overseas - but the Brumbies will miss Gregan and Larkham, you don't replace players like that overnight. At the same time, Richie McCaw and Carter will be very fired up after the RWC to prove that they are still the top players in their respective positions and that could only benefit the 'Red and Blacks'.
One distinct advantage that the Brumbies will have come Friday is their grounding in the Experimental Law Variations (ELVs), with Australian teams having used the 'new' laws in their domestic competition last year. I don't, however, see it helping them enough.
I guess this will be quite an odd match for Crusaders coach Robbie Deans, who will coach the Wallabies after the Super 14. Whilst he is currently plotting the downfall of Australia's best players, he will have only their interests at heart come June. I think it's only right, however, that he sees out this season with the Crusaders and he can worry about the international season when it gets underway.
Fleckie's prediction: Crusaders to win.
REDS v HIGHLANDERS:
Friday, February 15 - 11.05am
Brisbane
Despite their Wooden Spoon finish in 2007, the Reds did show some improvement under Eddie Jones as the season progressed.
They also seem to have made some good acquisitions during the off-season, most notably in the form of centre Morgan Turinui, who has moved from the Waratahs. Their captain David Croft is a great player, but they're lacking the David Wilsons, Tim Horans, Jason Littles, Daniel Herbert and Ben Tunes of old.
The Highlanders, meanwhile, have lost some big names; an entire All Blacks front row in Clarke Dermody, Anton Oliver and Carl Hayman and also utility back Nick Evans. Evans can play almost anywhere in the backline and his loss will hit the Highlanders the hardest.
Just a warning; this won't be the most free-flowing game of Round One, but the Reds are a tough proposition at home, especially early in the season they will try to grind out a win.
Fleckie's prediction: Reds to sneak this at home.
SHARKS v FORCE:
Friday, February 15 - 7.10pm
Durban
Barring anything untoward, the Sharks can prepare themselves for a big 2008 as they look to go one better than last year's final loss.
Despite losing John Smit, Butch James and Percy Montgomery, they have all their other RWC Boks back in the mix, with the addition of former Cheetahs tighthead prop Jannie du Plessis, which adds some serious depth to their tight-five resources.
The Force, as I said last week, will make their presence felt in 2008, and I expect them to provide the stiffest challenge from Australia.
Unfortunately for them, they have had some off-field dramas to deal with this week, which could serve only to disrupt their preparations. In my time as a player, I can say we did have one or two incidents between players that boiled over, but these incidents were always left on the training field. I have never witnessed anything like this happening in a team - be it here in SA or when I played abroad at Bath.
Force scrumhalf Matt Henjak has found himself at the centre of this controversy, which is not his first misdemeanour. It's obviously hard for me to say exactly what happened, and whether Henjak is to blame or not - as I am not privy to the goings-on in Perth - but it is hard to ignore the fact that his name has popped up yet again. It's a cloud hanging over his head and one that could cost him Test caps in the future.
Fleckie's prediction: The Sharks are one of my favourites for the title this year and they will start with a win.
BLUES v CHIEFS:
Saturday, February 16 - 8.35am
Auckland
The Blues have recruited well this year, most notably by signing Nick Evans from the Highlanders. Luke McAllister is a massive loss - as are locks Greg Rawlinson and Ali Williams - but Evans will plug that gap at No.10.
Hurricanes wing David Smith is another good signing for the Blues, but I see they have not even selected him in their 22 for this week, with Anthony Tuitavake and Joe Rokocoko the starting wingers.
Another surprise for me is that they have selected Isa Nacewa at fullback.
Personally, I rate Nacewa as one of the better players in world rugby and I would pick him at No.12, with Evans (flyhalf) and Isaia Toeava (outside centre) on either side of him. Such a settled, multi-skilled 10-12-13 combination is a throwback to the successful Auckland Blues team of the mid-90s, which had Spencer, Clarke and Stensness pulling the playmaking skills, with Lomu and Vidiri doing the damage out wide. See the similarities?
The Chiefs are always a threat, any team that boasts the likes of Sitiveni Sivivatu and Mils Muliaina can attack, but the Blues are far superior to them up front. (The Blues have always had the forwards and it is no different at the moment, even without Ali Williams.)
Chiefs centre Richard Kahui is a man to watch, after being quite unlucky with injuries of late, but they have missed a trick by not getting Warren Gatland involved - just look how well Wales are doing!? The Blues, meanwhile, have a very canny coach in David Nucifora, who the ARU are trying to lure back to Australia.
Fleckie's prediction: Home advantage will do it for the Blues.
WARATAHS v HURRICANES:
Saturday, February 16 - 10.40am
Sydney
The Waratahs are always hard to beat in Sydney - everyone knows that, although, oddly, the Stormers have quite a good record there.
Peter Hewat is a big loss for them, mainly as a goal-kicker, but there's been a lot of talk about their new league recruit Timana Tahu, whilst we all saw last year what Lachlan Turner can do when given any space.
They also have experienced and powerful loose forwards in Rocky Elsom, Phil Waugh, Wycliff Palu and David Lyons and, like the rest of the Australian teams, they will be well-versed when it comes to the ELVs.
Aside from losing Tana Umaga, the Hurricanes look pretty formidable, especially with lock Jason Eaton back from injury and scrumhalf Piri Weepu looking to prove a point after missing out on World Cup selection. Another man with an axe to grind will be centre Ma'a Nonu, who is yet to realise his full potential at international level.
Fleckie's prediction: Traditionally, the Waratahs tend to start strongly in the Super 14, whilst the 'Canes are slow starters. 'Tahs to win a tight one.
STORMERS v BULLS:
Saturday, February 16 - 5pm
Cape Town
The Stormers have their best chance in four years to turn the Bulls over in a Super 14 fixture, mainly because there seems to be some unrest in the Bulls camp at present.
Heyneke Meyer not being there is a massive issue - Frans Ludeke will battle to fill his shoes, and, now this week, Bakkies Botha has asked to be released from his contract with the union.
Bakkies wanting to leave is a huge statement in itself. He has always said he wouldn't leave for the money and I have to say I believe him. Yes, he is being offered tons of money to go to Toulon, but Bakkies is a proud Bull and an even prouder South African, clearly things are not the same there anymore.
The Bulls are in a similar position to the Stormers (and Western Province) a few years ago when we lost the likes of Krige, Skinstad, Fleck, Montgomery and Paulse after we all played a lot of junior rugby together and progressed into the senior ranks at virtually the same time, too. Alan Solomons was the same father figure to us that Meyer was to Bakkies and co. and the cracks will widen even more when a guy like Bryan Habana starts looking elsewhere.
The Stormers this week have everything to gain and nothing to lose against the Bulls. They're a more complete team than they have been for some time and they're a 110 percent better coached team, too, under Rassie Erasmus. They will boss the breakdown and Rassie would've prepared them for the law changes. If Tony Brown had been there, on the bench at least, I would make them clear favourites.
Fleckie's prediction: Stormers to win.
CHEETAHS v LIONS:
Saturday, February 16 - 7.05pm
Bloemfontein
A repeat of last year's Absa Currie Cup Final will see virtually the same players contest this match in Bloemfontein.
The Cheetahs, of course, are without Os du Randt and Jannie du Plessis this year - Jannie was involved in the final last year - but Willem de Waal at flyhalf is a big loss for them.
Overall, however, they are a better-coached unit than the Lions and expect this to show at the breakdown. Naka Drotské might have surprised some pundits with his coaching, especially his adventurous approach, but I played a bit of rugby with him and always found him to be a pretty deep thinker about the game.
Naka, if you remember, started his first-class career as a flanker, but his approach to scrumming and throwing in was always very technical and I am sure he learnt plenty under Rassie at the Cheetahs and also under Brendan Venter at London Irish. (Can you imagine the mind games ahead of the Stormers-Cheetahs game in April?!)
Fleckie's prediction: Cheetahs to repeat their Currie Cup success, but with a more comfortable scoreline.
* Don't forget the start of the FNB Varsity Cup next Monday, especially down here in Cape Town when UCT hosts Pukke at 5.30pm.
The Ikeys players and the rest of the students are already buzzing with excitement ahead of Monday; I can only imagine the excitement at the seven other university campuses in South Africa.
As I mentioned last week, we haven't had a lot of time to prepare our guys, but we have worked incredibly hard over the past month. We have a young and exciting squad and we won't make it easy for Pukke come Monday night.
As a coach, your approach to a game is very different to that as a player, but I still carry the same passion for my team as I did when I played. At times, I can get a bit heated on the touchline - as I did on the odd occasion last season - but I think I have matured as a coach this year. Besides, if I'm losing it on the sidelines, who is going to keep an eye on my head coach John Dobson?!
I am very excited about the Varsity Cup, which, I believe, has the ability to turn university - and club - rugby on its head in South Africa. I am very grateful to be involved in the inaugural event, but this is the kind of tournament worth following, regardless of ones involvement.
Chat next week,
Robbie Fleck
For more on the Varsity Cup, CLICK HERE.
* Email Fleckie at sport365@365digital.co.za with your Super 14 picks for this week!
* Fleckie's 'Last Word' will appear weekly on sport365.co.za - and also on rugby365.com and iafrica.com - so log on next week for more Super 14 views and predictions.